349
FXUS62 KMLB 170808
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY
LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK,
WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID EARLY THIS
MORNING. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ECFL, WITH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT. STILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH SOME L70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SKIES
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LOW
(STRATUS) CLOUDS VS. FOG POTENTIAL, ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOG
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, WITH VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE IN
SPOTS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING DISTANCE.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA AS
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK
ENERGY AT 500 MB . AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
ERLY WIND SPEEDS 7-12 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT-
NMRS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS, AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESP WHERE
CELLS TRAIN AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY. WHILE MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, AMOUNTS TO 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY 3-5
INCHES) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TOWARDS THE SOUTH BREVARD AND
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. ELEVATED POPS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY - ESP IN
REPEATED BANDS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80F AT THE COAST WITH SOME L80S
INLAND. CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED MORNING - ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL ALLOW THE
DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD IF
APPLICABLE.
WED-TUE...ALOFT, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA LATE ON THU, WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL MID-WEEK WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING COLDER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA THRU THE EXTENDED. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THIS LAST FRONT.
MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY THU. POPS 50-70PCT AREAWIDE
ON WED INTO WED NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BACKING OFF 20-40PCT ON THU,
THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND DOWN THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENT THRU WED, THEN SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A
FEW DEGREES ON THU. L70S AND A FEW M70S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE REGION ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT/SUN AREAWIDE,
WITH A GRADUAL AND SLOW WARMING TREND MON/TUE. LOWS IN THE L-M60S
THU MORNING, THEN MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO L-M50S MON
MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE MORNING. COLDEST WIND
CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR EARLY
SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
TODAY-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND DEEPER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THRU MID-WEEK, AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTH-CENTRAL FL WED/THU. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA ON FRI BRINGING COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT. THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE
WITH COMPONENT VEERING TO ESE/SE/S THRU WED EVENING. WINDS BECOME
NW/N OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING CONTINUING THRU FRI. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH LATEST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SHOWERY PRECIP WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE FORECAST THRU WED
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
SEAS 5-9 FT EARLY TODAY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT AREAWIDE BY THIS
EVENING, 4-6 FT DURING DAY ON WED. BOATING CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
POOR INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM (4-6 FT). SEAS 3-5 FT
FROM THU INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI, BUT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN
LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASING NWRLY WINDS. INTRACOASTAL AND INSHORE BOATING WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL, BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHOP WILL
PERSIST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH
PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
OVERNIGHT MVFR CEILINGS MOST LIKELY FROM KDAB-KLEE, POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING TOWARD KSFB-KMCO-KISM FOR A PERIOD GIVEN LIGHT NORTHEAST
FLOW. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING
AND COVERAGE CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST. OPTED FOR VCSH WITH
TEMPO TSRA ACROSS SPACE AND TREASURE COAST TERMINALS (KTIX- KSUA)
WHERE GUIDANCE FOCUSES AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION - THOUGH ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS STAND A 50-60% OF SEEING SHOWERS AT
SOME POINT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 78 62 / 50 30 60 50
MCO 80 66 79 66 / 50 20 60 50
MLB 78 66 78 63 / 60 50 70 60
VRB 81 67 80 65 / 60 60 70 70
LEE 81 65 80 63 / 40 20 50 40
SFB 80 66 80 64 / 50 30 60 40
ORL 81 66 81 65 / 50 20 60 40
FPR 80 66 79 64 / 60 60 70 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...ULRICH
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