481  
FXUS62 KMLB 171135  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
635 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY  
LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND  
TREASURE COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK,  
WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES  
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE  
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
CURRENT-TONIGHT...REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID EARLY THIS  
MORNING. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ECFL, WITH WINDS AT THE  
SURFACE LIGHT. STILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE  
COAST SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO  
THE 60S WITH SOME L70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SKIES  
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LOW  
(STRATUS) CLOUDS VS. FOG POTENTIAL, ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOG  
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, WITH VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE IN  
SPOTS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW  
BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING DISTANCE.  
 
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA AS  
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK  
ENERGY AT 500 MB . AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH  
ERLY WIND SPEEDS 7-12 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH NEAR THE  
COAST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT-  
NMRS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS, AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS  
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESP WHERE  
CELLS TRAIN AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY. WHILE MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR  
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, AMOUNTS TO 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY 3-5  
INCHES) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TOWARDS THE SOUTH BREVARD AND  
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. ELEVATED POPS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND  
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY - ESP IN  
REPEATED BANDS.  
 
MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80F AT THE COAST WITH SOME L80S  
INLAND. CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH MINS IN THE  
60S AREAWIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY WED MORNING - ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL ALLOW THE  
DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD IF  
APPLICABLE.  
 
WED-TUE...ALOFT, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE  
FL PENINSULA LATE ON THU, WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED  
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO  
NORTH-CENTRAL FL MID-WEEK WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING COLDER/DRIER  
AIR INTO THE AREA THRU THE EXTENDED. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THIS LAST FRONT.  
 
MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE  
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY THU. POPS 50-70PCT AREAWIDE  
ON WED INTO WED NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BACKING OFF 20-40PCT ON THU,  
THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE  
EXTENDED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND DOWN THE PENINSULA.  
 
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENT THRU WED, THEN SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A  
FEW DEGREES ON THU. L70S AND A FEW M70S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST  
AND OKEECHOBEE REGION ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT/SUN AREAWIDE,  
WITH A GRADUAL AND SLOW WARMING TREND MON/TUE. LOWS IN THE L-M60S  
THU MORNING, THEN MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.  
COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO L-M50S MON  
MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE MORNING. COLDEST WIND  
CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR EARLY  
SAT/SUN MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024  
 
TODAY-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. AND DEEPER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THRU MID-WEEK, AS A WEAK  
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTH-CENTRAL FL WED/THU. A STRONGER  
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA ON FRI BRINGING COOLER/DRIER  
CONDITIONS AND A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER  
PATTERN.  
 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX DURING THE DAY  
ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT. THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE  
WITH COMPONENT VEERING TO ESE/SE/S THRU WED EVENING. WINDS BECOME  
NW/N OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING CONTINUING THRU FRI. WINDS WILL  
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH LATEST COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE.  
 
SHOWERY PRECIP WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE FORECAST THRU WED  
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,  
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.  
 
SEAS 5-9 FT EARLY TODAY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT AREAWIDE BY THIS  
EVENING, 4-6 FT DURING DAY ON WED. BOATING CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN  
POOR INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM (4-6 FT). SEAS 3-5 FT  
FROM THU INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI, BUT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN  
LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND  
INCREASING NWRLY WINDS. INTRACOASTAL AND INSHORE BOATING WILL  
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL, BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHOP WILL  
PERSIST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 631 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024  
FOG WILL PERSIST WITHIN KSFB-KLEE CORRIDOR THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE  
GRADUALLY LIFTING/CLEARING BY 14Z AS ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO MIX IN  
OFF THE ATLANTIC. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PROMOTES THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS KTIX-KSUA CORRIDOR. OPTED FOR A FEW TEMPOS  
ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST TERMINALS BUT TIMING  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MEDIUM AT BEST. WILL RE-EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR  
FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGES, BUT GREATEST  
POTENTIAL AGAIN LIES WITHIN KDAB-KLEE-KSFB (PERHAPS KMCO/KISM)  
CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 78 64 78 62 / 50 30 60 50  
MCO 80 66 79 66 / 50 20 60 50  
MLB 78 66 78 63 / 60 50 70 60  
VRB 81 67 80 65 / 60 60 70 70  
LEE 81 65 80 63 / 40 20 50 40  
SFB 80 66 80 64 / 50 30 60 40  
ORL 81 66 81 65 / 50 20 60 40  
FPR 80 66 79 64 / 60 60 70 70  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-  
555.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK  
AVIATION...ULRICH  
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