833
FXUS62 KMLB 171753
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1253 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY
LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK,
WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW REACHING PORTIONS OF BREVARD AND THE TREASURE
COAST. COVERAGE OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS INCREASES LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH POPS RANGING 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT LOOK
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER, DRY
AIR ALOFT AND POOR SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STORM STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WHERE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS MAY OCCUR. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN
BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST COAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HERE, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
HIGHLIGHT BETWEEN A 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 2 INCHES. WPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN BREVARD AND
THE TREASURE COAST.
EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES, REACHING THE LOW 80S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...REMAINING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID EARLY THIS
MORNING. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS ECFL, WITH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT. STILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SHOWERY PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S WITH SOME L70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SKIES
REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS LOW
(STRATUS) CLOUDS VS. FOG POTENTIAL, ESP ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOG
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, WITH VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE IN
SPOTS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING DISTANCE.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FL PENINSULA AS
NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB RETURNS TO THE REGION WITH SOME WEAK
ENERGY AT 500 MB . AT THE SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
ERLY WIND SPEEDS 7-12 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH NEAR THE
COAST WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT-
NMRS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS, AGAIN. HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE, ESP WHERE
CELLS TRAIN AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY. WHILE MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE NEAR
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, AMOUNTS TO 1-3 INCHES (LOCALLY 3-5
INCHES) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TOWARDS THE SOUTH BREVARD AND
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. ELEVATED POPS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY - ESP IN
REPEATED BANDS.
MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80F AT THE COAST WITH SOME L80S
INLAND. CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED MORNING - ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL ALLOW THE
DAYSHIFT TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD IF
APPLICABLE.
WED-TUE...ALOFT, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA LATE ON THU, WITH A STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL MID-WEEK WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. THIS WILL BRING COLDER/DRIER
AIR INTO THE AREA THRU THE EXTENDED. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THIS LAST FRONT.
MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA THRU EARLY THU. POPS 50-70PCT AREAWIDE
ON WED INTO WED NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BACKING OFF 20-40PCT ON THU,
THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND DOWN THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONSISTENT THRU WED, THEN SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A
FEW DEGREES ON THU. L70S AND A FEW M70S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE REGION ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT/SUN AREAWIDE,
WITH A GRADUAL AND SLOW WARMING TREND MON/TUE. LOWS IN THE L-M60S
THU MORNING, THEN MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO L-M50S MON
MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE MORNING. COLDEST WIND
CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR EARLY
SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
TODAY-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND DEEPER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THRU MID-WEEK, AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTH-CENTRAL FL WED/THU. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA ON FRI BRINGING COOLER/DRIER
CONDITIONS AND A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER
PATTERN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT. THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE
WITH COMPONENT VEERING TO ESE/SE/S THRU WED EVENING. WINDS BECOME
NW/N OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING CONTINUING THRU FRI. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH LATEST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SHOWERY PRECIP WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE FORECAST THRU WED
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
SEAS 5-9 FT EARLY TODAY SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT AREAWIDE BY THIS
EVENING, 4-6 FT DURING DAY ON WED. BOATING CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN
POOR INTO WED NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM (4-6 FT). SEAS 3-5 FT
FROM THU INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRI, BUT MAY BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN
LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
INCREASING NWRLY WINDS. INTRACOASTAL AND INSHORE BOATING WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL, BUT AT LEAST A MODERATE CHOP WILL
PERSIST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ONSHORE FROM
TIX SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY. INLAND, THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO TAPER OFF INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS DUE
TO -SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF FOG DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LEE HAS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING REDUCTIONS. FOR
NOW, HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR ISM/MCO/SFB/LEE/DAB FROM 9-13Z.
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SE INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 78 62 74 / 20 40 50 20
MCO 67 80 66 78 / 20 40 50 20
MLB 66 78 64 76 / 40 40 70 30
VRB 68 80 65 79 / 50 60 70 40
LEE 65 81 63 77 / 10 40 40 20
SFB 65 80 64 77 / 20 40 50 20
ORL 66 81 65 78 / 20 40 50 20
FPR 67 79 65 78 / 60 60 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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