397
FXUS62 KMLB 180353
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1053 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY
LEAD TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND
TREASURE COASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
INTO MID WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
QUITE THE RAINY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TREASURE AND SOUTHERN
SPACE COAST. VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWATS 1.5-1.7" PLUS
SOME CONVERGENCE IN MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPED
TRAINING BANDS OF LIGHTNING STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS THAT
DELIVERED 2-4" OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA, AND LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF 5-6" IN VIERA AND FORT PIERCE TO
PORT SAINT LUCIE. A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS EVEN MANAGED TO
DEVELOP NEAR FORT PIERCE, ONE PRODUCING A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH AT
THE TREASURE COAST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AND ANOTHER PEA SIZED
HAIL IN SOUTHERN PORT SAINT LUCIE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND WEAKENED, BUT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STORM CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE STUART AREA. THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE, BUT THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AS WINDS VEER FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY,
THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
THE WATERS TO TRAIN PARALLEL THE COAST FROM MARTIN TO SOUTHERN
BREVARD. IF THESE TRAINING BANDS MOVE ONSHORE, THESE AREAS COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO LIGHTNING STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS
CAPABLE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3", AND
LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF 4" OR MORE. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
THAT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IS EXPECTED AGAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. UP TO THIS POINT, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY WHERE GAUGES
INDICATE 0.9-1.4" HAVE FALLEN IN VICINITY OF VERO BEACH. A
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN BREVARD AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE. HERE,
LOCALIZED 24 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE GENERALLY HINTS
AT THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH THE
NUMEROUS COVERAGE (~60%) FOCUSED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS
SUPPORTIVE FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY, DRY AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM STRENGTH AND
ORGANIZATION. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, CAMS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BREVARD, OKEECHOBEE, AND THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BECOME VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/ LOW
80S.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...ALOFT, AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON THU, WITH A
STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE FL PENINSULA ON FRI. THIS
WILL BRING COLDER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA THRU THE EXTENDED. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
BEHIND THIS LAST FRONT. POPS ~20-40PCT ON THU, THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER
LAND AREAS THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS DRIER AIR BUILDS
SOUTHWARD AND DOWN THE PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A FEW DEGREES ON THU. L-
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE L-M60S THU
MORNING, THEN MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER
AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO L-M50S MON MORNING AND
GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE MORNING. COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD
REALIZE U30S TO L40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST AROUND 10 KTS NEARSHORE
AND 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE, WHILE
REMAINING POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SEAS UP TO 7 FT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING WIDELY 5-6 FT
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
FRIDAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS DEVELOP THURSDAY, BACKING
NORTHWEST FRIDAY. SEAS OF 4-5 FT CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECLINE
THURSDAY, BEFORE BUILDING UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY, DRYING INTO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. VCSH
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM TIX SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPOS AT
MLB, VRB, AND FPR THROUGH 02Z FOR REDUCED VIS AND CIG DUE TO TSRA.
EXTENSIONS IN THESE TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EVOLVES. ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
DAB, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG,
LEADING TO VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS AFTER 09Z. KEPT IN TEMPOS FOR
THESE TERMINALS, WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z.
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH
INDICATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT TO THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. ADDED VCSH AT THESE SITES AFTER
20Z. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 78 62 74 / 30 40 50 20
MCO 66 80 66 78 / 20 40 50 20
MLB 67 78 64 76 / 40 50 70 30
VRB 68 80 65 79 / 50 50 70 40
LEE 65 81 63 77 / 20 40 40 20
SFB 65 80 64 77 / 20 40 50 20
ORL 66 81 65 78 / 20 40 50 20
FPR 67 79 65 78 / 50 60 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
UPDATE...HALEY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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