407
FXUS62 KMLB 181150
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
650 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
AGAIN TODAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD
TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WARM AND MILD
CONDITIONS; TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONTO
THE COAST - HEAVY TRAINING CELLS ACROSS COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING EARLIER THIS
MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESULTANT FROM DEEP MOISTURE AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM. WILL, AGAIN,
MONITOR FOR ANY LOW (STRATUS) CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
(INTERIOR). SHOULD FOG DEVELOP, IT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, WITH
VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE IN SPOTS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE
DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE.
TODAY-TONIGHT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA. AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FL BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWATS) SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY HIGH POPS WITH
40-50PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 50-70PCT NEAR THE COAST - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD/TREASURE COASTS. ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AGAIN, MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. PRIMARY STORM THREATS REMAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY BELOW ONE
QUARTER OR ONE-HALF INCH, BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESP CLOSER TOWARDS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL VEER ESE/SE DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10
MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
WEAK FRONT EXPECT A VEERING COMPONENT TO WRLY/NWRLY. MAX TEMPS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80F NEAR THE COAST WITH A FEW
L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. ONE LAST MILD NIGHT FOR MINS AND MAINLY IN
THE L-M60S. MODELS HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, FOR
MUCH OF ECFL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
THU-WED...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON THU WITH A REINFORCING TAIL-END TROUGH
BRUSHING THE AREA AGAIN ON FRI. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MAINLY
ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A
COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THRU ECFL LATE THIS WEEK, WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
RECOVERY (MOISTURE/TEMPS) INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK. POPS ~20-40PCT ON THU -
HIGHEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST, THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS
THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED, EXCEPT A SMALL POP (20PCT)
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST BY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A FEW DEGREES ON THU. L-
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT
THU INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS,
U40S TO L-M50S MON MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE/WED
MORNINGS. COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S
INLAND/WEST OF I-95 FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THRU SUN...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PUSH DOWN THE FL PENINSULA
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL FINALLY PUSH COOLER/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ELEVATED SHOWER AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES, AGAIN TODAY, GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES THU/FRI,
MAINLY DRY FRI-SAT, BUT MAY SEE A RETURN OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 34
KTS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONTINUES FOR OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS
UNTIL 15Z/10AM THIS MORNING FOR SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7 FT AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THIS MORNING NEAR
SHORE FROM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY COUNTY LINE THRU JUPITER INLET
FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SLOW, GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BUT WILL STILL NEED
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE ONCE THE SCA EXPIRES LATER TODAY.
HOPEFULLY, WE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
OFFSHORE BY THU MORNING, AS SEAS BUILD 3-5 FT AREAWIDE INTO FRI
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN LATE FRI THRU SAT BEHIND
THE LATEST COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AGAIN FOR
SEAS SAT NIGHT-SUN. THESE HIGHER SEAS (LATE FRI/SAT) 5-7 FT WILL
AFFECT MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS, AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NWRLY WINDS 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO VISBY REDUCTIONS
THIS MORNING (KSFB-KMCO-KISM-KLEE) BEFORE GRADUALLY BURNING OFF
BETWEEN 13-14Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST DUE TO CONTINUED COASTAL CONVERGENCE IN
PRESENCE OF SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. LIGHT
WINDS MAY PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING -
WILL RE- EVALUATE WITH 18Z PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 62 75 57 / 40 30 20 0
MCO 81 65 78 61 / 40 30 20 0
MLB 78 64 77 59 / 50 40 30 10
VRB 80 65 79 61 / 70 50 40 10
LEE 81 64 78 58 / 40 30 20 0
SFB 80 64 77 59 / 40 30 20 0
ORL 82 65 79 60 / 40 30 20 0
FPR 79 64 79 60 / 70 50 40 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...ULRICH
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