700
FXUS62 KMLB 181751
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1251 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
AGAIN TODAY. REPEAT RAIN BANDS AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY LEAD
TO STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME LOCALES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVES FURTHER SEAWARD. HIGH
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS OBSERVED IN THE
UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.3-1.5". NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SEEN OFFSHORE
BREVARD THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS
INCREASES AREAWIDE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE (50-60%)
CONFINED TO THE COAST, PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, POPS WILL RANGE 20-40%.
MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AND EXPECT AT
LEAST ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR AND POOR
SHEAR LOOK TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM STRENGTH. A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT EXISTS TODAY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE TREASURE COAST. MODELS
SUGGEST HIGH END LOCALIZED PRECIP TOTALS BETWEEN 3-5" ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS IF TRAINING CELLS SET UP
PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
EXISTS FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY
BELOW ONE QUARTER OR ONE-HALF INCH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES RANGING THE LOWER
80S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WARM AND MILD
CONDITIONS; TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY THIS
MORNING. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONTO
THE COAST - HEAVY TRAINING CELLS ACROSS COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING EARLIER THIS
MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESULTANT FROM DEEP MOISTURE AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM. WILL, AGAIN,
MONITOR FOR ANY LOW (STRATUS) CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
(INTERIOR). SHOULD FOG DEVELOP, IT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, WITH
VISIBILITY TO ONE-HALF MILE IN SPOTS. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG WHILE
DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE.
TODAY-TONIGHT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA. AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FL BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWATS) SURGE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY HIGH POPS WITH
40-50PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 50-70PCT NEAR THE COAST - HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD/TREASURE COASTS. ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, AGAIN, MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. PRIMARY STORM THREATS REMAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY BELOW ONE
QUARTER OR ONE-HALF INCH, BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESP CLOSER TOWARDS THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL VEER ESE/SE DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10
MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
WEAK FRONT EXPECT A VEERING COMPONENT TO WRLY/NWRLY. MAX TEMPS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE U70S TO NEAR 80F NEAR THE COAST WITH A FEW
L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. ONE LAST MILD NIGHT FOR MINS AND MAINLY IN
THE L-M60S. MODELS HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, FOR
MUCH OF ECFL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
THU-WED...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON THU WITH A REINFORCING TAIL-END TROUGH
BRUSHING THE AREA AGAIN ON FRI. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MAINLY
ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE TROUGHS WILL PUSH A
COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES THRU ECFL LATE THIS WEEK, WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
RECOVERY (MOISTURE/TEMPS) INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNING SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK. POPS ~20-40PCT ON THU -
HIGHEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST, THEN MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS
THRU MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED, EXCEPT A SMALL POP (20PCT)
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST BY SUN INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLOWLY BACK OFF BY A FEW DEGREES ON THU. L-
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND
SLOW WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT
THU INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS,
U40S TO L-M50S MON MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE/WED
MORNINGS. COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S
INLAND/WEST OF I-95 FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
THRU SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL PUSH DOWN
THE FL PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL FINALLY PUSH
COOLER/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ELEVATED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES, AGAIN TODAY,
GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCES THU/FRI, MAINLY DRY FRI-SAT, BUT MAY
SEE A RETURN OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. PRIMARY
STORM IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 34 KTS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY, BUT WILL STILL
NEED CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT.
HOPEFULLY, WE WILL BE ABLE TO PULL THE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
OFFSHORE BY THU MORNING, AS SEAS BUILD 3-5 FT AREAWIDE INTO FRI
AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN LATE FRI THRU SAT BEHIND
THE LATEST COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AGAIN FOR
SEAS SAT NIGHT- SUN. THESE HIGHER SEAS (LATE FRI/SAT) 5-7 FT WILL
AFFECT MAINLY OFFSHORE WATERS, AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NWRLY WINDS 15-20 KTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL, WANTING TO LIFT CIGS
MUCH EARLIER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THESE CLOUD LAYERS WILL ACTUALLY LIFT. FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST, HAVE LOWER CIGS PERSISTING AT TIMES THROUGH
AROUND 20Z, BEFORE LIFTING.
REGARDLESS, FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 5Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO AFFECT ALL OF
THE LOCAL TERMINALS FROM AT LEAST 8-12Z. THEN, MODELS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF CIG/VIS ISSUES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
GENERALLY FROM AROUND MCO/TIX SOUTHWARD AS OF AROUND 18Z. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 0Z, BEFORE
DIMINISHING. UNTIL THEN, VCSH/SHRA, WITH ADDITIONAL BRIEF VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A LIGHTNING STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 75 57 74 / 40 20 0 0
MCO 65 78 61 74 / 30 20 0 0
MLB 62 77 59 76 / 50 30 10 0
VRB 65 79 60 77 / 60 30 10 0
LEE 63 78 58 73 / 30 20 0 0
SFB 64 77 59 74 / 30 20 0 0
ORL 65 78 60 74 / 30 20 0 0
FPR 64 79 59 77 / 60 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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