735
FXUS62 KMLB 182036
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
- AREAS OF FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS INTO THURSDAY.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
LATE WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS DECREASING OVERALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO VERIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN AND ST.
LUCIE COAST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL INITIALIZATION TRENDS.
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE THEN FORECAST TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOG COULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO LATE MORNING.
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE BOUNDARY, PERHAPS BECOMING
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY. HAVE
KEPT A MENTION OF AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.1". HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN PUSHES
DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW RECOVERY
(MOISTURE/TEMPS) INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, EXCEPT A SMALL POP (20PCT) ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SHORT COOLING PERIOD IS FORECAST LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE L-
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO
L-M50S MON MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE/WED MORNINGS.
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S INLAND/WEST OF I-95
FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER NORTH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 9-12 KTS
THURSDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-5 FT AREA WIDE. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT REBUILD SEAS UP TO TO 7-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING 4-5 FT SUNDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW, DRYING INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
PESKY MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL, WANTING TO LIFT CIGS
MUCH EARLIER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THESE CLOUD LAYERS WILL ACTUALLY LIFT. FOR THE
CURRENT FORECAST, HAVE LOWER CIGS PERSISTING AT TIMES THROUGH
AROUND 20Z, BEFORE LIFTING.
REGARDLESS, FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 5Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO AFFECT ALL OF
THE LOCAL TERMINALS FROM AT LEAST 8-12Z. THEN, MODELS SUGGEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO HELP IMPROVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 16Z. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF CIG/VIS ISSUES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
GENERALLY FROM AROUND MCO/TIX SOUTHWARD AS OF AROUND 18Z. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 0Z, BEFORE
DIMINISHING. UNTIL THEN, VCSH/SHRA, WITH ADDITIONAL BRIEF VIS/CIG
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. A LIGHTNING STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 75 57 74 / 40 20 0 0
MCO 65 78 61 74 / 30 20 0 0
MLB 62 77 59 76 / 50 30 10 0
VRB 65 79 60 77 / 60 30 10 0
LEE 63 78 58 73 / 30 20 0 0
SFB 64 77 59 74 / 30 20 0 0
ORL 65 78 60 74 / 30 20 0 0
FPR 64 79 59 77 / 60 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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