081
FXUS62 KMLB 182330
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
- AREAS OF FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS INTO THURSDAY.
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
LATE WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS DECREASING OVERALL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO VERIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN AND ST.
LUCIE COAST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL INITIALIZATION TRENDS.
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE THEN FORECAST TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. FOG COULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO LATE MORNING.
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE BOUNDARY, PERHAPS BECOMING
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY. HAVE
KEPT A MENTION OF AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.1". HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN PUSHES
DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW RECOVERY
(MOISTURE/TEMPS) INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, EXCEPT A SMALL POP (20PCT) ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A SHORT COOLING PERIOD IS FORECAST LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE L-
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO
L-M50S MON MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE/WED MORNINGS.
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S INLAND/WEST OF I-95
FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER NORTH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 9-12 KTS
THURSDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-5 FT AREA WIDE. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT REBUILD SEAS UP TO TO 7-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING 4-5 FT SUNDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW, DRYING INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO KICK OFF THIS EVENING, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE. VCSH
POSSIBLE FROM VRB SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS IS FORECAST AFTER 05Z,
WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 08-12Z.
EXTENSIONS TO TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON JUST HOW
DENSE THE FOG BECOMES AND HOW LONG LOWER VIS AND CIGS STICK
AROUND. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE UNTIL WELL AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AROUND 15Z.
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 75 57 74 / 40 20 0 0
MCO 65 78 61 74 / 30 20 0 0
MLB 62 77 59 76 / 50 30 10 0
VRB 65 79 60 77 / 60 30 10 0
LEE 63 78 58 73 / 30 20 0 0
SFB 64 77 59 74 / 30 20 0 0
ORL 65 78 60 74 / 30 20 0 0
FPR 64 79 59 77 / 60 30 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-570-572.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page