349  
FXUS62 KMLB 190153  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
853 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
- AREAS OF FOG FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE WITH  
VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES  
 
- POOR TO MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS GRADUALLY  
IMPROVE ON THURSDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS CONTINUES  
 
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR THIS WEEKEND  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 850 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING,  
ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, ARE  
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FOGGY NIGHT. IN FACT, SEVERAL COASTAL  
LOCATIONS ARE SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG ALREADY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES  
TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT, GROWING IN  
COVERAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY  
DENSE, DROPPING VISIBILITY BELOW ONE-HALF MILE. A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT IF THE COVERAGE OF DENSE  
FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD. DRIVERS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ENCOUNTERING FOG. USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS,  
ENSURE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES, AND SLOW  
DOWN. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING  
THURSDAY.  
 
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE 70S INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH  
SUNRISE THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS  
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES  
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL  
FLORIDA, AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS DECREASING OVERALL. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO VERIFY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MARTIN AND ST.  
LUCIE COAST BASED ON CURRENT MODEL INITIALIZATION TRENDS.  
 
MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.  
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF  
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING  
ACROSS THE NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE THEN FORECAST TO  
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, BECOMING  
LOCALLY DENSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. FOG COULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE,  
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO LATE MORNING.  
 
THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDELY  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE BOUNDARY, PERHAPS BECOMING  
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.  
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY. HAVE  
KEPT A MENTION OF AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS  
THAN 0.1". HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S.  
 
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS  
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN PUSHES  
DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW RECOVERY  
(MOISTURE/TEMPS) INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE FLOW  
RETURNING SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS THRU  
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED, EXCEPT A SMALL POP (20PCT) ALONG PORTIONS OF  
THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY SUN AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
A SHORT COOLING PERIOD IS FORECAST LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE L-  
M70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR HIGHS SAT AREAWIDE, WITH A GRADUAL AND  
SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNING INTO NEXT WEEK. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S  
INTO FRI MORNING. COLDER AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH 40S FOR LOWS, U40S TO  
L-M50S MON MORNING AND GENERALLY 50S FOR MINS TUE/WED MORNINGS.  
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S INLAND/WEST OF I-95  
FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 336 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS VEER NORTH OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 9-12 KTS  
THURSDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY  
THURSDAY WITH SEAS BECOMING 4-5 FT AREA WIDE. A COLD FRONT MOVES  
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS  
BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY  
NIGHT REBUILD SEAS UP TO TO 7-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS THEN  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING 4-5 FT SUNDAY. ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW, DRYING INTO LATE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 630 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO KICK OFF THIS EVENING, WITH  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE. VCSH  
POSSIBLE FROM VRB SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL  
FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS IS FORECAST AFTER 05Z,  
WITH TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 08-12Z.  
EXTENSIONS TO TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON JUST HOW  
DENSE THE FOG BECOMES AND HOW LONG LOWER VIS AND CIGS STICK  
AROUND. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE UNTIL WELL AFTER  
SUNRISE, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING AROUND 15Z.  
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS  
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 62 75 57 74 / 10 20 0 0  
MCO 65 78 61 74 / 10 20 0 0  
MLB 62 77 59 76 / 10 30 10 0  
VRB 65 79 60 77 / 10 30 10 0  
LEE 63 78 58 73 / 10 20 0 0  
SFB 64 77 59 74 / 10 20 0 0  
ORL 65 78 60 74 / 10 20 0 0  
FPR 64 79 59 77 / 10 30 10 0  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-570-572.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...SCHAPER  
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN  
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