631  
FXUS62 KMLB 191512  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
1012 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS  
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
 
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO  
THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK.  
 
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT LED TO THE EARLIER DENSE FOG ADVISORIES  
HAVE LIFTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED IN PRONE  
SPOTS AS OF AROUND 10AM, THOUGH DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER A THREAT.  
WILL SEE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS  
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON DIP  
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVERNIGHT.  
 
WILL BE MONITORING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DURING THE  
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
CURRENT...PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WIDESPREAD  
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THROUGH  
MID TO LATE MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL  
OF ECFL THRU 10AM THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO FALL  
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHEN ENCOUNTERING DENSE FOG  
WHILE DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE  
FOLLOWING DISTANCE. MAINLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS, THOUGH WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS  
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM.  
 
TODAY-TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FL  
PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SURFACE  
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS VEER NW/N WITH SPEEDS  
INCREASING TO 7-12 MPH. CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS LAND WITH ANY PRECIP  
REMAINING ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS, GENERALLY WELL OFFSHORE.  
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  
NW WINDS BECOME LIGHT (OR CALM) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE WILL  
LIKELY SEE FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, ONCE AGAIN,  
AND IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.  
 
MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE M-U70S AT THE COAST WITH U70S TO AROUND 80F  
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLER AND WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F.  
 
FRI-THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE FL PENINSULA ON  
FRI, THIS TIME WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE  
PENINSULA FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT  
IN ITS WAKE. OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY VEER MORE NERLY ON  
SUN AS SOME MARINE INFLUENCE (ADDITIONAL MOISTURE) SURGES BACK  
INTO THE AREA. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK  
AS SHOWERY PRECIP RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON  
SUN, AND POSSIBLY TO ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT  
SOME POINT, SOME OF THIS LIGHTER ONSHORE-MOVING ACTIVITY WILL  
AFFECT INTERIOR REACHES OF ECFL AS WELL.  
 
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR SAT/SUN - WITH AREAS  
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 POSSIBLY ONLY MANAGING U50S FOR MAXES ON SAT. A  
SLIGHT WARMING TREND INITIATED ON SUN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK  
AS HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUE, CONTINUING INTO WED/THU.  
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SAT/SUN MORNING REALIZING L-M40S ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR - A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST, WITH U40S (NW OF I-4) TO 50S  
EXPECTED FOR MON MORNING, AND 50S/L60S (COAST) RETURNING TUE-THU  
MORNINGS. COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S INLAND/WEST  
OF I-95 FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
THRU MON...SEAS REMAIN STUBBORN OFFSHORE VOLUSIA/BREVARD WITH  
WAVE HEIGHTS STILL BETWEEN 6-7 FT. SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY (SCA) GOES THRU 09Z/4AM AND WILL HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE  
TO REPLACE OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS INSTEAD  
OF PUSHING THE SCA OUT FURTHER. NEAR SHORE SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT.  
NWRLY WINDS INCREASING TO 9-14 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
PRESSING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA. WINDS REMAIN OF A NW/N  
COMPONENT INTO SUN MORNING, WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE  
FORECAST LATE FRI AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY SAT  
BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN, THOUGH THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS 5-7 FT FRI  
NIGHT-SAT GULF STREAM AND POSSIBLY TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE FOR A  
BRIEF PERIOD FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS  
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED LATE SUN INTO MON WHICH COULD PROMOTE POOR  
BOATING CONDITIONS MAINLY OFFSHORE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024  
 
TAFS BEGIN WITH PRIMARILY MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WITH TEMPO LIFR  
CIGS/VIS BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED.  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 15Z-16Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS ARE  
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM MAINLY AFTER 05Z WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR IFR CONDITIONS INTO FRI AM. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS  
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE N AT AROUND 5-8KTS INTO THU PM.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 75 57 74 43 / 10 0 0 0  
MCO 78 61 74 46 / 10 0 0 0  
MLB 78 59 76 47 / 10 0 0 0  
VRB 79 60 79 48 / 10 0 0 0  
LEE 78 58 73 42 / 10 10 0 0  
SFB 78 58 74 44 / 10 0 0 0  
ORL 79 60 74 45 / 10 0 0 0  
FPR 79 59 78 47 / 10 0 0 0  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...LEAHY  
AVIATION...FEHLING  
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