238
FXUS62 KMLB 191759
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1259 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE SHOW GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
AREAS OF DENSE FOG THAT LED TO THE EARLIER DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
HAVE LIFTED. SOME PATCHY FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED IN PRONE
SPOTS AS OF AROUND 10AM, THOUGH DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER A THREAT.
WILL SEE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVERNIGHT.
WILL BE MONITORING THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FOG DURING THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
CURRENT...PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF ECFL THRU 10AM THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO FALL
TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. WHEN ENCOUNTERING DENSE FOG
WHILE DRIVING, SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE. MAINLY DRY OVER LAND AREAS, THOUGH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AREAWIDE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO CALM.
TODAY-TONIGHT...A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SURFACE
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS VEER NW/N WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 7-12 MPH. CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS LAND WITH ANY PRECIP
REMAINING ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS, GENERALLY WELL OFFSHORE.
DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NW WINDS BECOME LIGHT (OR CALM) THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, ONCE AGAIN,
AND IT COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.
MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE M-U70S AT THE COAST WITH U70S TO AROUND 80F
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLER AND WELL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F.
FRI-THU...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE FL PENINSULA ON
FRI, THIS TIME WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE
PENINSULA FOR THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO LEAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IN ITS WAKE. OUR NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY VEER MORE NERLY ON
SUN AS SOME MARINE INFLUENCE (ADDITIONAL MOISTURE) SURGES BACK
INTO THE AREA. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID NEXT WEEK
AS SHOWERY PRECIP RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUN, AND POSSIBLY TO ALONG THE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT
SOME POINT, SOME OF THIS LIGHTER ONSHORE-MOVING ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT INTERIOR REACHES OF ECFL AS WELL.
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S ON FRI, THEN 60S FOR SAT/SUN - WITH AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 POSSIBLY ONLY MANAGING U50S FOR MAXES ON SAT. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND INITIATED ON SUN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S BY TUE, CONTINUING INTO WED/THU.
OVERNIGHT MINS FOR SAT/SUN MORNING REALIZING L-M40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR - A BIT WARMER NEAR THE COAST, WITH U40S (NW OF I-4) TO 50S
EXPECTED FOR MON MORNING, AND 50S/L60S (COAST) RETURNING TUE-THU
MORNINGS. COLDEST WIND CHILLS COULD REALIZE U30S TO L40S INLAND/WEST
OF I-95 FOR EARLY SAT/SUN MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
THRU MON...SEAS REMAIN STUBBORN OFFSHORE VOLUSIA/BREVARD WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS STILL BETWEEN 6-7 FT. SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) GOES THRU 09Z/4AM AND WILL HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE
TO REPLACE OFFSHORE MARINE LEGS WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS INSTEAD
OF PUSHING THE SCA OUT FURTHER. NEAR SHORE SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT.
NWRLY WINDS INCREASING TO 9-14 KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PRESSING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA. WINDS REMAIN OF A NW/N
COMPONENT INTO SUN MORNING, WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST LATE FRI AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY SAT
BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN, THOUGH THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS 5-7 FT FRI
NIGHT-SAT GULF STREAM AND POSSIBLY TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED LATE SUN INTO MON WHICH COULD PROMOTE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS MAINLY OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
GENERALLY VFR NOW AS EARLY DAY LOW CIGS CLEAR OUT. STILL,
SCT015-025 WILL BE MAINTAINED THRU 00Z BEFORE SOME BRIEF
ADDITIONAL CLEARING. AFTER 05Z-06Z, MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. MVFR TO
IFR/LIFR CIG/VIS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF KTIX/KMLB. CIG/VIS IMPROVES AFTER 13Z-14Z WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NW, REACHING 7-12 KT FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 57 74 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 74 46 61 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 59 76 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 79 48 67 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 59 73 42 60 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 59 75 44 60 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 60 75 45 62 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 59 78 47 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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