546
FXUS62 KMLB 200003
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
703 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO
THIS EVENING. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE HORIZON BY THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY, LEADING TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG, WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE, WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4. USE CAUTION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG, SLOW DOWN, LEAVE PLENTY OF
FOLLOWING DISTANCE, AND USE ONLY YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST ON FRIDAY,
AS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
WEAK FRONT AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY,
THOUGH NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ALONG IT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING NEARER TO NORMAL IN THE
MID-70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE TREASURE
COAST. A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY, AS HIGHS
ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID-60S, WITH UPPER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-4. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15MPH WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR, ALLOWING
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-40S OVER THE INTERIOR. WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US
SUNDAY, THEN DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
WITH IT. POPS 20-30% EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK, MAKING FOR A WARM, HUMID CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY WILL BECOME THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SEA FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT. THE GREATEST
POSSIBILITY FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THIS EVENING
OFFSHORE, AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET SUBSIDE.
PERIODS OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
THEN, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW.
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT, STRONGER COLD FRONT. THEN, VEER NORTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND,
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS. SEAS WILL RESPOND, BUILDING TO 6-8FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. NEXT WEEK, ONSHORE FLOW 15-20KTS WILL LEAD TO
5-7FT SEAS. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
BUT INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AND COVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
RADAR INDICATES VCSH AT LEE/SFB EARLY THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE
OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AREAS OF SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE
THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. HAVE STARTED THE 00Z TAF WITH
IFR/LIFR TEMPOS AT DAB/TIX FOR VIS REDUCTIONS IN DENSE FOG.
EXPECTING ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT WITH VIS IMPACTS AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS. PREVAILING MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 06/07 ACROSS THE INTERIOR, DAB, AND TIX WITH TEMPOS FOR
LOCALLY LOWER VIS BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. LATER START FOR
PREVAILING FOG FROM MLB SOUTHWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-22 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 57 74 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 74 46 61 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 59 76 47 64 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 61 79 48 67 / 10 0 0 0
LEE 59 73 42 60 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 59 75 44 60 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 60 75 45 62 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 59 78 47 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...LAW
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