959
FXUS62 KMLB 200928
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
428 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
- DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE WILL
IMPACT MORNING COMMUTES AGAIN.
- A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLING OFF THIS WEEKEND AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S
AND WIND CHILLS INTO THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THIS MORNING...A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY, TRAFFIC
CAMERAS, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE, AND IN SOME CASES LESS THAN A
QUARTER MILE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM.
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS, WHILE ANOTHER WEAKENING FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPROACHES FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN A BIT BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS,
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS TO 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG OR AT LEAST LIFTING
IT TO STRATUS. WINDS THEN FURTHER INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS, A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY IS ONE TAP ONCE THE FOG
AND OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING CLEAR, BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S, FROM THE L70S UP NORTH TO THE U70S DOWN SOUTH. FRONT
NUMBER TWO REACHES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NO RAIN CHANCES DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT WILL FURTHER COOL AND DRY OUT
FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND...THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
SATURDAY AS MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE STUART
AREA, WHO MIGHT HOLD AROUND 50. THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TO THE
SOUTH WHILE LOSING DEFINITION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN US AND FLORIDA.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE U30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY THE M30S WELL NORTH OF I-4, AND IN THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 60S, MAYBE THE U50S NORTH OF I-4. INLAND WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY 5-10 MPH, MAYBE A BIT WEST OF NORTH IN DRAINAGE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOWS IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. NEAR THE COAST, FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING LOWS
NEAR 50 WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BREEZY
AND GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAIN CHANCES (20 PCT) ALSO RETURN
TO THE COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THIS FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN PLEASANT IN THE U60S-L70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A QUASI-STATIONARY
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR OUR COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (20-30 PCT)
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INCREASES AND EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON, OCCASIONALLY TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE L-M70S AND LOWS
IN THE L-M50S), MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY, AND SLOWLY INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS LATE THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHERLY AT AROUND 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM BUILD UP TO 7 FT IN RESPONSE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 10 PM
TONIGHT TO 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD SUNDAY, NEAR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AND LONG PERIOD SWELL REACHING THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP BOATING
CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE TO HAZARDOUS. NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY 10-15
KTS VEER TO EASTERLY BY TUESDAY, PERIODICALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 3-5 FT SUNDAY MORNING INCREASE DUE
TO SWELL AND WINDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO 6 FT NEARSHORE AND 8 FT
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING STORMS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
TAFS BEGIN WITH PRIMARILY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS FORECAST THROUGH 14Z/15Z. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS
LOW AS 1/4TH MILE TO NEAR ZERO AND CEILINGS AT 002-005 ARE
FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z/15Z. CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE W AT
5-10KTS AT 14Z AND AT 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-22KTS AFTER 17Z/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 43 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 74 45 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 76 46 64 49 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 78 48 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 72 42 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 74 44 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 74 45 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 77 47 66 49 / 0 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-
547-647-747.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550-552-
555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...FEHLING
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