669
FXUS62 KMLB 201740
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1240 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- COOLING OFF THIS WEEKEND AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 40S
AND WIND CHILLS INTO THE 30S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH LATE
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH LATER TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
THIS MORNING...A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY, TRAFFIC
CAMERAS, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AREAS OF FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE, AND IN SOME CASES LESS THAN A
QUARTER MILE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM.
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS, WHILE ANOTHER WEAKENING FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPROACHES FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TIGHTEN A BIT BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS,
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS TO 5-10 MPH IN THE MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE DISSIPATION OF THE FOG OR AT LEAST LIFTING
IT TO STRATUS. WINDS THEN FURTHER INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS, A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY IS ONE TAP ONCE THE FOG
AND OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING CLEAR, BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S, FROM THE L70S UP NORTH TO THE U70S DOWN SOUTH. FRONT
NUMBER TWO REACHES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NO RAIN CHANCES DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT WILL FURTHER COOL AND DRY OUT
FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND...THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT BY EARLY
SATURDAY AS MORNING LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE STUART
AREA, WHO MIGHT HOLD AROUND 50. THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TO THE
SOUTH WHILE LOSING DEFINITION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND OVER THE EASTERN US AND FLORIDA.
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE U30S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY THE M30S WELL NORTH OF I-4, AND IN THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 60S, MAYBE THE U50S NORTH OF I-4. INLAND WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY 5-10 MPH, MAYBE A BIT WEST OF NORTH IN DRAINAGE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOWS IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. NEAR THE COAST, FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING LOWS
NEAR 50 WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BREEZY
AND GUSTY AGAIN SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAIN CHANCES (20 PCT) ALSO RETURN
TO THE COAST AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THIS FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAIN PLEASANT IN THE U60S-L70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND A QUASI-STATIONARY
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR OUR COAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (20-30 PCT)
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
INCREASES AND EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON, OCCASIONALLY TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE L-M70S AND LOWS
IN THE L-M50S), MAYBE SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY, AND SLOWLY INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY
AT AROUND 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM BUILD
UP TO 7 FT IN RESPONSE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 10
AM SATURDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO SHORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCES DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST SEABOARD SUNDAY, NEAR THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AND LONG PERIOD SWELL REACHING THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP BOATING
CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE TO HAZARDOUS. NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY 10-15
KTS VEER TO EASTERLY BY TUESDAY, PERIODICALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 3-5 FT SUNDAY MORNING INCREASE DUE
TO SWELL AND WINDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO 6 FT NEARSHORE AND 8 FT
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING STORMS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
LINGERING FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO IMPACT THE TREASURE
COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT QUICKLY ARRIVING DRY AIR
SHOULD ERODE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z. A SECONDARY BAND OF BKN
STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS KLEE TO KISM, BUT TRENDS ON SATELLITE ALSO
SHOW EROSION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE GUSTY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 43 59 45 66 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 46 62 45 69 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 46 65 48 71 / 0 0 10 20
VRB 46 67 49 72 / 0 0 10 20
LEE 43 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 44 61 44 68 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 46 62 45 69 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 46 67 48 72 / 0 0 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
UPDATE...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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