340
FXUS62 KMLB 210551
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1251 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
- COLDER AND DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S SATURDAY MORNING
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
- ONSHORE WIND RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING EVEN DRIER AIR AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WESTERLY WINDS VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, CAUSING WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
NOW-TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE MORNING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST FINALLY DISSIPATING, WHILE
MID LEVEL CUMULUS PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR IS QUICKLY SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, A PRECURSOR
TO MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR NOW HAVE
REACHED THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
FROM THE ORLANDO AREA SOUTHWARD. FORECAST HIGHS WERE TEMPERED A
BIT BY THE LONGER LASTING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, BUT FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, IT HAS BEEN A SEASONABLE MID DECEMBER AFTERNOON.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, ENHANCED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 5-10 MPH. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET,
REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (EXCEPT FOR THE MID/UPPER 50S
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST). WIND CHILLS WILL BECOME A FACTOR, TOO,
DIPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SPEAKING OF COLD, SATURDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4 TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE DATE
(NORMAL IS BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES). SUNSHINE HELPS US REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON, WORKING IN CONTRAST TO
A COOL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE, GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND 15-20
MPH. SOME CLOUDS START TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HEADING INTO SUNDAY,
THINGS START OUT ON THE COLD SIDE AGAIN WITH SUNRISE TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST (UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S COASTAL). THE
NORTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES INTO THE MID 60S AND LOW 70S. ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS ROLLING ONSHORE, AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA TO
START THE WEEK, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE TROUGH FORMS AND
HOLDS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PW NEAR AND ABOVE 1"
RETURN TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE WHOLE AREA BY WEDNESDAY,
THANKS TO STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC-850MB FLOW. THIS SPELLS OUT A
WARMING TREND FOR US HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND ADDED MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER, SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST INTERMITTENTLY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST ON MONDAY, THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB FLOW, WHICH WILL BE STEERING
THESE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS, BEGINS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY BUT VEERS MORE PARALLEL (SOUTHERLY) BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL SHIFT
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS TUE-WED, WITH
SHOWERS MORE OR LESS BRUSHING THE COAST ON THESE DAYS. THE QPF
REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT, AROUND 0.50" ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS TO AS
LITTLE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
HIGHS EACH DAY GRADUALLY INCREASE, STARTING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW THE SAME UPWARD TREND, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO A
NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND
OFFSHORE BREVARD WATERS). A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINS AT 7 PM,
COVERING THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS, WHILE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION NEARSHORE. SEAS REMAIN UP TO 7 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY RETURNS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EVEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PRIMARILY ON
TUESDAY, AS A SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF
POOR TO HAZARDOUS GULF STREAM SEAS MAY UNFOLD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVING BY
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS EXIST AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY EVENING (MAINLY AFTER
22Z) AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS AT
THE COASTAL TAF SITES BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 45 65 54 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 62 45 68 53 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 64 49 71 58 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 66 50 72 59 / 0 10 20 30
LEE 60 41 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 61 44 67 54 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 61 45 68 54 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 66 49 72 58 / 0 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...FEHLING
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