182
FXUS62 KMLB 211148
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
648 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
- A CHILLY WEEKEND AS REINFORCING COLD AND DRY AIR PUSHES
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S AND WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE 30S.
- BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE AT THE LEAST, AND
BECOMING POOR TO HAZARDOUS AT TIMES.
- ONSHORE WINDS RETURN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. A WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
CHRISTMAS IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
THIS MORNING...A CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND AS REINFORCING COLD
AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING TO FALL INTO THE 40S EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH FURTHER
COOLING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, BRINGING MORNING LOWS
DOWN TO THE L-M40S INLAND AND M-U40S ALONG THE COAST. COMBINED
WITH A 5-10 MPH BREEZE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE U30S-M40S
ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED LARGE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MOUNTAIN/CENTRAL TO EASTERN
US THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE HIGH MOVING
OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 MPH
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER COOLER AIR, HOLDING
THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS TO THE 60S, MAYBE UPPER 50S WELL NORTH OF
I-4 DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE, AND PLUNGING OVERNIGHT LOWS
INLAND BACK INTO THE 40S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE U30S-M40S. ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT, A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS STARTS TO SHIFT WINDS ONSHORE JUST A BIT,
ENOUGH TO BRING SUNDAY MORNING LOWS TO THE M40-L50S, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 40S. IN THE BALANCE ACT OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OVER LAND,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EITHER TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND RESULT
IN SUNDAY MORNING LOWS NEAR THE COAST TO BE WARMER OR COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE AND SOUTHERN
SPACE COASTS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SPREAD OF LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING THAN SATURDAY OR MONDAY,
BUT NOT SO MUCH TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST, AND EITHER WAY WOULDN'T CHANGE IMPACTS (OR LACK
THEREOF). THE WARMING TREND KICKS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH REACHES FLORIDA AND THE WEAK
TROUGH PARKS ITSELF NEAR OUR COAST, SHIFTING WINDS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 10-15 MPH INLAND AND
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST,
MAINLY FROM MELBOURNE NORTH. HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH BRINGS ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (POPS 20 PCT) BACK
TO THE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN
CHANCES PUSHES FURTHER INLAND AND INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT (POP
20-30 PCT). LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 50S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...BACK INTO THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. RIDGING ALOFT
STALWARTLY HOLDS OFF AGAINST SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRANSITING ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN US ELONGATES AND
CONTORTS SOUTH AND EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH, BUT THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS OF THE HIGH REMAIN GENERALLY DRAPED ACROSS
FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK. REMARKABLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY TO REMAIN
ANCHORED NEAR OUR COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, WITH EVEN ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOWING THE FEATURE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS START
TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE'S STILL PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FOR
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A
SHARP TROUGH UPSTREAM (DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO DEPICT THIS
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES), WITH ASSOCIATED REINFORCING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING SOME FLAVOR OF ONSHORE FLOW.
ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IN FACT, THE
00Z GFS SHIFTS THE COASTAL TROUGH INLAND CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON, WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-1,000 J/KG CAPE AND WEAKLY VEERED
PROFILES, MEANING EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS AREN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION IF THE TROUGH DECIDES TO MAKE A VISIT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND UP THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT SHARP
RIDGING ALOFT CUTS BACK RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
STREAM, AND UNFAVORABLE TO POOR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE PUSHING
THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, DEPARTING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR LOSING DEFINITION BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
NNW 13-17 KTS THIS MORNING EASE A BIT TO GENERALLY 10-15 KTS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOSER TO 15 KTS UP NORTH, THEN VEER SUBTLY TO
THE N-NNE LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM SETTLE JUST A BIT TO 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS HIGHER MOISTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD STARTS TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE AT THE
LEAST, UP TO HAZARDOUS AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US
BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, VEERING WINDS GENERALLY ONSHORE AT 10-15 KTS. THE
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ANCHORED NEAR THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST,
PERIODICALLY SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION TO THE NE OR SE AND
INCREASING SPEEDS TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS OUTSIDE THE GULF STREAM
GENERALLY REMAIN A CHOPPY 3-5 FT. IN ADDITION, A COUPLE SWELLS
ARRIVING THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS IN THE GULF
STREAM UP TO 7 FT AGAIN. IF THE WINDS AND THE SEAS WEREN'T ENOUGH,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS EXIST AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS (MAINLY
AFTER 22Z) AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 14Z AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 15KTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 22Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 45 65 54 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 62 45 68 53 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 64 49 71 58 / 0 10 20 20
VRB 66 50 72 59 / 0 10 20 30
LEE 60 41 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 61 44 67 54 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 61 45 68 54 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 66 49 72 58 / 0 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...FEHLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page