154
FXUS62 KMLB 212325
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
625 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AND WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S WEST OF I-95
- BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING POOR TO HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE
- ONSHORE WINDS RETURN MONDAY, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
NOW-TONIGHT...AS PROMISED, IT IS A COOLER AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY (5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SPOTS). SHALLOW CUMULUS
IS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COASTS, WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE GUSTING UP TO
20 MPH AT TIMES. SKY AND WIND CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS IS REFLECTED
BY LOWS REACHING THE LOW 40S WEST OF I-95, COMPARED TO TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN FAR
NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES COULD HIT THE UPPER 30S FOR A
BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SUNDAY BEGINS COLD, BUT WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE
MID 60S AND LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES (UP TO 20-25
MPH). THE CLOUDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE COAST, WHERE MOISTURE
DEEPENS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO APPROACH
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS
LOW TEMPERATURES RETREAT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (CLOSER TO 60
DEGREES AT THE COAST). THESE LOWS ARE NEARER TO NORMAL FOR MID
DECEMBER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK COULD
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS SFC-850MB WINDS LINE UP PERPENDICULAR TO THE
COAST. PW ALSO INCREASE TO 1+" THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SHORE MONDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BUMP RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT.
THE WARMING TREND FROM SUNDAY RAMPS UP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW/MID 70S). CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY BUT ESPECIALLY SO AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING IN OUTPUT MID TO LATE WEEK. ONE CONSTANT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S (MAYBE EVEN 80
DEGREES, FAR INTERIOR). RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE
COAST, PERHAPS STAYING OFFSHORE FOR A BETTER PORTION OF TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE IMPINGING ON AREAS NORTH OF
I-4. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS PAINTS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHILE THE
ECMWF POINTS TO A STOUTER RIDGE. THEREFORE, STAYED NEAR THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THEN ON
INTO LATE WEEK. SOME MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OVER THE
WATERS FOR NOW, WITH JUST SHOWERS OVER LAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY WEEK BEFORE A SURFACE
TROUGH SHAPES UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NNE WINDS
15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS ON SUNDAY TURN ONSHORE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHTEN A TOUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN
POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT IMPROVE THEREAFTER. SHOWER
ACTIVITY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE OCCURRING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BECOMING NORTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 18Z, WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS NOT ABLE TO BE FULLY RULED OUT. DRY, THOUGH THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN
THESE SHOWERS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. WILL
MONITOR AND REASSESS WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 45 66 54 71 / 0 20 30 30
MCO 46 68 55 73 / 0 10 10 30
MLB 47 71 58 74 / 10 20 30 30
VRB 48 73 59 76 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 41 67 51 71 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 45 68 54 72 / 0 10 20 30
ORL 45 68 55 73 / 0 10 10 30
FPR 47 73 58 75 / 10 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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