732  
FXUS62 KMLB 220608  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
108 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AND WIND  
CHILLS IN THE 30S WEST OF I-95  
 
- BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING POOR TO HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE  
 
- ONSHORE WINDS RETURN MONDAY, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
NOW-TONIGHT...AS PROMISED, IT IS A COOLER AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED  
TO YESTERDAY (5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SPOTS). SHALLOW CUMULUS  
IS STREAMING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN  
BREVARD COASTS, WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE GUSTING UP TO  
20 MPH AT TIMES. SKY AND WIND CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR OVERNIGHT  
WITH CLEARER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS IS REFLECTED  
BY LOWS REACHING THE LOW 40S WEST OF I-95, COMPARED TO TEMPS IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN FAR  
NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES COULD HIT THE UPPER 30S FOR A  
BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, WIND CHILL VALUES  
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE.  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SUNDAY BEGINS COLD, BUT WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE  
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE  
MID 60S AND LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS  
THE AREA AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES (UP TO 20-25  
MPH). THE CLOUDIEST LOCATIONS WILL BE AT THE COAST, WHERE MOISTURE  
DEEPENS JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO APPROACH  
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS  
LOW TEMPERATURES RETREAT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (CLOSER TO 60  
DEGREES AT THE COAST). THESE LOWS ARE NEARER TO NORMAL FOR MID  
DECEMBER.  
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEK COULD  
OCCUR ON MONDAY AS SFC-850MB WINDS LINE UP PERPENDICULAR TO THE  
COAST. PW ALSO INCREASE TO 1+" THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE A  
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OR JUST OFF THE SHORE MONDAY  
THROUGH MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALSO HELP BUMP RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT.  
THE WARMING TREND FROM SUNDAY RAMPS UP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS  
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL (LOW/MID 70S). CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN  
BREEZY BUT ESPECIALLY SO AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  
 
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SURFACE  
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLAY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH  
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING IN OUTPUT MID TO LATE WEEK. ONE CONSTANT  
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH  
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S (MAYBE EVEN 80  
DEGREES, FAR INTERIOR). RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE  
COAST, PERHAPS STAYING OFFSHORE FOR A BETTER PORTION OF TUESDAY.  
IN ADDITION, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE IMPINGING ON AREAS NORTH OF  
I-4. BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS PAINTS A WEAK MID  
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHILE THE  
ECMWF POINTS TO A STOUTER RIDGE. THEREFORE, STAYED NEAR THE  
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM THEN ON  
INTO LATE WEEK. SOME MODELS HINT AT ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE  
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT THUNDER MENTION OUT OVER THE  
WATERS FOR NOW, WITH JUST SHOWERS OVER LAND.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024  
 
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE VOLUSIA AND OFFSHORE  
BREVARD WATERS BECOME HAZARDOUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS NORTH-  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FRESHEN AND SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS INTO EARLY WEEK BEFORE A SURFACE  
TROUGH SHAPES UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NNE WINDS  
15-20 KT WITH 25 KT GUSTS ON SUNDAY TURN ONSHORE BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHTEN A TOUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN  
POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT IMPROVE THEREAFTER. SHOWER  
ACTIVITY PICKS UP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THESE OCCURRING.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 108 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2024  
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z. MVFR CIGS ARE  
FORECAST AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES AFTER 18Z-22Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT THE INLAND TAF SITES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT  
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z-16Z AT  
AROUND 10-12KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-18KTS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 03Z.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 66 55 70 55 / 20 40 30 30  
MCO 68 55 73 56 / 10 30 20 10  
MLB 70 59 74 59 / 30 30 30 20  
VRB 72 59 76 60 / 30 30 20 20  
LEE 66 51 71 54 / 10 20 10 10  
SFB 68 54 73 55 / 20 40 20 20  
ORL 69 55 73 57 / 10 30 20 10  
FPR 71 59 76 59 / 20 20 20 20  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS  
EVENING FOR AMZ550.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY  
FOR AMZ570.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY  
FOR AMZ572.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN  
AVIATION...FEHLING  
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