044
FXUS62 KMLB 222100
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
- GRADUAL WARMING THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT, BECOMING POOR
THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY OFFSHORE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
NOW-TONIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE ARE THIS AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY PUTTING
AN END TO ANY ADDITIONAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE
FALLING INTO THE 50S THIS EVENING. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, ALONG
WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE, ALL POINT TO A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST TONIGHT FOR A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHERE A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXISTS. SUPPORTED BY A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH, THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY PIVOT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING, MOVING
INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE. QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.2". OVERNIGHT TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE LOW 50S
NORTH OF I-4 WHILE MOST OTHER SPOTS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY WEEK AS THE LOCAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, TAKING
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES FROM ALONG THE COAST MONDAY TOWARD THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS BY TUESDAY. PW GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, SUPPORTING AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. MORNING LOWS
DIP INTO THE 50S BOTH DAYS, STAYING CLOSER TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST.
CHRISTMAS DAY-SATURDAY...MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEAK TROUGH
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY RIDGING LATE WEEK, WHICH ALLOWS FOR
A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW SURFACE PATTERN. MODELS DIVERGE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SUITE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE YUCATAN TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE (I.E.
ECMWF) SUGGEST A MORE MUTED OUTCOME. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH RAIN
CHANCES NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT, FOCUSED ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING IS FORECAST, MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL, INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER EAST OVERNIGHT,
DECREASING IN SPEED TO AROUND 15 KT. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 7 FT
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST, SO PARED BACK THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND ENDED IT AT 4 AM MONDAY. POOR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN, AT LEAST OFFSHORE, THROUGH MID WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ENE
WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 151 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 5-10
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOME ACTIVITY
MAKING IT AS FAR INLAND AS MCO/ISM IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
BECOMING CONFINED TO THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM DAB-MLB INTO MID-MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR -SHRA
FROM 11-14Z FOR THOSE SITES. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE WIND
VEER MORE EASTERLY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 55 71 54 70 / 30 30 20 10
MCO 55 74 56 75 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 57 75 58 74 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 58 77 60 77 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 51 72 54 73 / 10 10 10 0
SFB 54 73 55 73 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 55 74 56 74 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 57 76 58 76 / 20 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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