689
FXUS62 KMLB 151819
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
119 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
- COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK, COLDEST
MORNINGS THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY
- BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GULF STREAM.
- MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
A COLD START FOR MANY, WITH WIND CHILLS ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID-
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF AROUND 3AM. FORECAST PEAK WIND CHILLS
THIS MORNING ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-4.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TREASURE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY TODAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. BUT, WINDS 10-15MPH,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20MPH, ARE STILL FORECAST ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.
TONIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST, BUT SLACKEN TO AROUND 5MPH.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, THEY WON'T
BE QUITE AS COLD AS EARLY THIS MORNING, REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-4 WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER LAND AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN, LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES, BUT GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST.
CLEARING SKIES INTO FRIDAY WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPROVE THE CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAKING IT THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK. LOWS ARE FORECAST
IN THE LOWER TO MID-40S FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER, REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS
WEEKEND, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY.
UNTIL THEN, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY WILL ADVECT
IN HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE PENINSULA, WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN
1.3-1.5". POPS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, FIRST ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR, THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS
30-60% THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH POPS LINGERING AT 20-30% INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION FOR ANY LIGHTNING STORMS, AS CAPE IS FORECAST TO
BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO BRING A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE SWING,
LEADING TO HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AND A BREAK FROM SEVERAL WEEKS OF
COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREA-WIDE. BY SUNDAY, THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND LOWER
80S FOR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER TO MID-50S BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT SETUP.
HOWEVER, THE BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO BE THAT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IS IN QUESTION. ONSHORE FLOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP, PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL, BUT NEARER TO NORMAL THAN
THE PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TODAY, AS SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE SPACE AND TREASURE
COAST WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, AS SEAS REMAIN UP TO 7FT. SMALL
CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL OF THE GULF STREAM
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SEAS 3-5FT. NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM 15-20KTS TO AROUND
10KTS BY TONIGHT.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH LATE WEEK, MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS. SEAS 2-5FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST, WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY OR NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10KTS OR LESS.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS A FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT,
THEN LINGERING INTO MONDAY, AS MOISTURE INCREASES. HAZARDOUS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY,
BECOMING UP TO 20-25KTS WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN AROUND 15-20KTS. SEAS
2-4FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUILDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT IN
THE GULF STREAM ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND DAB, AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT FROM TIX SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS ONCE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BACKING NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY...NEAR-CRITICAL MIN RH IS FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TODAY AND THURSDAY, THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING LOWER RH VALUES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
10-15MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 20MPH ALONG THE COAST TODAY. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 10MPH OR LESS FOR INLAND COUNTIES.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE, BUT REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 44 63 39 63 / 10 20 0 0
MCO 48 64 43 67 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 49 65 44 66 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 52 68 47 69 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 45 64 42 67 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 46 65 42 67 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 47 65 44 67 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 51 68 46 68 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WATSON
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