081  
FXUS62 KMLB 152349  
AFDMLB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL  
649 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
- COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST  
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,  
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND SUNDAY'S  
COLD FRONT.  
 
 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
NOW-TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING WEST TO EAST  
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  
CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S (NORTH) TO UPPER 60S (SOUTH). IT HAS ALSO  
BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25+ MPH AT  
TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY  
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, BUT THIS SHOULD UNWIND  
TONIGHT, ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY  
LIGHT AT THIS TIME, WITH BROKEN BANDS OF 20DBZ OR LESS TRAVERSING  
THE STATE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE  
GROUND, EVIDENCED WELL BY THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN THIS  
MORNING'S XMR SOUNDING.  
 
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST WITH THE  
COLDEST SPOTS NORTH OF I-4 BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,  
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BLANKET THE AREA, FORECAST LOWS ARE  
UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED  
THIS MORNING.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION ARE  
FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW  
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE DURING THIS  
TIMEFRAME, WHILE NORTHWEST 500MB FLOW ON THURSDAY BECOMES QUASI-  
ZONAL ON FRIDAY. A COOL START ON THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO COOL  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AREAWIDE. SOME  
CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TREASURE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, BUT MANY LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4) WILL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLEAR. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE, DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE  
UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES, WITH VALUES RANGING  
THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A MOSTLY  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO HELP  
TEMPERATURES RECOVER, STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN  
RETURNS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. FOR THOSE LOOKING TO GET  
OUTSIDE AND TAKE A BREAK FROM LONG SLEEVES AND JACKETS, HIGHS IN  
THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH  
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST  
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF FLORIDA. AS RETURN  
FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES, SO DOES MOISTURE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW  
SURGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING  
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. LOCATIONS NEAR  
AND NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO TO CAPE CANAVERAL LOOK BEST  
SITUATED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA  
ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. MODELS HAVE SWUNG  
BACK AND FORTH WITH REGARD TO AVAILABLE MUCAPE ON SUNDAY, BUT  
HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY FROM THE ORLANDO AREA TO POINTS SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR DIG SOUTH.  
 
NEXT WEEK (PREVIOUS)...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT  
SETUP. HOWEVER, THE BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO BE THAT SHOWER CHANCES  
WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IS IN QUESTION.  
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP, PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG  
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL, BUT NEARER TO  
NORMAL THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
WINDS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE  
TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST  
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT,  
SLACKENING ON FRIDAY TO 10 KT OR LESS. SURFACE FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO  
THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, REACHING 15-25 KT. WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY  
WEST- SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE  
WATERS.  
 
SEAS...WAVES UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH  
TONIGHT BEFORE A GENERALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD OF BOATING CONDITIONS  
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE  
SATURDAY, SEAS BUILD (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE) UP TO 6 FT. EPISODES OF  
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 649 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGHER  
CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7-9KFT  
INTO TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY  
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING WITH THESE CLOUDS  
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT MVFR IMPACTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY  
LOOK UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND  
BECOMING LIGHT (5 KNOTS OR LESS) INTO TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN  
NORTHERLY WINDS TO 7-10 KNOTS IS FORECAST TOWARD DAYBREAK  
THURSDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND DIRECTIONS  
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
NEAR-CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST  
THROUGH LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, AS DRIER AIR BUILDS OVER  
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH) ON THURSDAY, VEERING EAST-NORTHEAST  
ON FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DAB 45 62 40 63 / 10 20 0 0  
MCO 50 63 45 67 / 10 10 0 0  
MLB 49 64 44 66 / 10 10 0 0  
VRB 53 68 47 69 / 10 10 10 10  
LEE 46 63 42 67 / 10 10 0 0  
SFB 47 64 42 67 / 10 10 0 0  
ORL 48 64 44 67 / 10 10 0 0  
FPR 52 67 46 69 / 10 10 10 10  
 
 
   
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...NONE.  
AM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER  
AVIATION...WEITLICH  
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