372
FXUS62 KMLB 160547
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1247 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
- COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND SUNDAY'S
COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK, BUT MRMS REFLECTIVITY AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT
MOST OF THIS CONTINUES TO NOT REACH THE SURFACE DUE TO POCKETS OF
DRIER AIR BELOW 500MB. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIMITED LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT
INTO NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF A PASSING SW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AT
TIMES LATE TONIGHT FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE KEEP MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES, AROUND 20 PERCENT, NORTH OF SANFORD.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S FARTHER SOUTH (EXCEPT MID 50S ALONG COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY).
THESE VALUES ARE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, AND NOT QUITE
AS COOL AS MOS OUTPUT, AS CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S (NORTH) TO UPPER 60S (SOUTH). IT HAS ALSO
BEEN A LITTLE BREEZY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25+ MPH AT
TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, BUT THIS SHOULD UNWIND
TONIGHT, ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY
LIGHT AT THIS TIME, WITH BROKEN BANDS OF 20DBZ OR LESS TRAVERSING
THE STATE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
GROUND, EVIDENCED WELL BY THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN THIS
MORNING'S XMR SOUNDING.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST WITH THE
COLDEST SPOTS NORTH OF I-4 BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BLANKET THE AREA, FORECAST LOWS ARE
UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED
THIS MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LIGHTER WINDS AND MINIMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST TO END THE WORK WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, WHILE NORTHWEST 500MB FLOW ON THURSDAY BECOMES QUASI-
ZONAL ON FRIDAY. A COOL START ON THURSDAY GIVES WAY TO COOL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AREAWIDE. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR THE TREASURE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT MANY LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4) WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE, DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES, WITH VALUES RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY ON FRIDAY WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO HELP
TEMPERATURES RECOVER, STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. FOR THOSE LOOKING TO GET
OUTSIDE AND TAKE A BREAK FROM LONG SLEEVES AND JACKETS, HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF FLORIDA. AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES, SO DOES MOISTURE. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW
SURGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. LOCATIONS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO TO CAPE CANAVERAL LOOK BEST
SITUATED TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. MODELS HAVE SWUNG
BACK AND FORTH WITH REGARD TO AVAILABLE MUCAPE ON SUNDAY, BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FROM THE ORLANDO AREA TO POINTS SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR DIG SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK (PREVIOUS)...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXACT
SETUP. HOWEVER, THE BOTTOM LINE APPEARS TO BE THAT SHOWER CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS IS IN QUESTION.
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP, PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOL, BUT NEARER TO
NORMAL THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW WEEKS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
WINDS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TONIGHT, WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT,
SLACKENING ON FRIDAY TO 10 KT OR LESS. SURFACE FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, REACHING 15-25 KT. WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY
WEST- SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS.
SEAS...WAVES UP TO 6 FT IN THE GULF STREAM REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE A GENERALLY FAVORABLE PERIOD OF BOATING CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY, SEAS BUILD (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE) UP TO 6 FT. EPISODES OF
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TO
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AT 12Z FOR A LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA, BUT
DON'T EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO EVEN MVFR. NRLY WINDS 5-10 KTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
NEAR-CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, AS DRIER AIR BUILDS OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH) ON THURSDAY, VEERING EAST-NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 40 64 50 / 30 0 0 10
MCO 63 43 67 53 / 10 0 0 10
MLB 63 44 67 56 / 10 0 0 10
VRB 67 47 70 58 / 10 0 10 10
LEE 62 41 67 51 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 63 41 67 51 / 20 0 0 10
ORL 63 44 68 53 / 20 0 0 10
FPR 67 46 69 57 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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