500
FXUS62 KMLB 161512
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1012 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TODAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- TURNING WARMER THIS WEEKEND. RAIN BECOMES LIKELY (60-80%) FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO AFFECT FLORIDA NEXT
WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOUTS OF COLD TEMPS, RAIN
SHOWERS, AND EXTENDED CLOUDY PERIODS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE. THE 11Z XMR SOUNDING DEPICTS A MOIST
LAYER FROM ~700MB TO 500MB BUT A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 700MB.
PRECIPITATION HAS TO FALL THROUGH THIS DRY AIR TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND, WHICH IS ONLY HAPPENING IN SELECT LOCATIONS (MAINLY NORTH
OF SANFORD. THEREFORE, MOST LOCATIONS ARE STAYING DRY DESPITE
SOME OF THESE RADAR RETURNS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END
AS INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARRIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ON
TRACK BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH, THANKS TO PLENTIFUL CLOUDS
AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER THE
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING HAVE REACHED THE TREASURE COAST (AT TIMES
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH), BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY AS A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW----------
A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS THE
STATE RESIDES AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS AMPLIFIED, WITH MEAN RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE BERING SEA. MEANWHILE,
A CUT-OFF LOW RESIDES OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, THIS CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO BE PICKED UP BY
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ENSEMBLES
LARGELY AGREE THAT THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP AND COLD TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SITUATED NEAR
FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT
TOTAL MOISTURE (PW) VALUES COULD EXCEED 200% OF NORMAL OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA.
BROADLY SPEAKING, THE MODEL SPREAD IS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE QUICKLY
TAKES A NOSEDIVE. 15/12Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALED NEARLY
AN EVEN SPLIT REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MONDAY. ROUGHLY HALF
OF THE MEMBERS DIG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE THE
OTHER HALF CONSOLIDATE THE ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN & CENTRAL U.S. AN EARLY LOOK AT THE 16/00Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES A LITTLE MORE SUPPORT FOR THE LATTER SOLUTION.
IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE EXTREME COLD GRIPPING THE
NATION AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ANTILLES CONCEPTUALLY PLACES
FLORIDA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS LEADS
TO A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES, WITH AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR A
PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND/OR UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
UNSURPRISINGLY, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WILD RUN-TO-RUN SWINGS IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE PATTERN RESOLVES ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT AN OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE LAST FEW
DAYS OF JANUARY, THE MJO IS FORECAST TO MOVE DEEPER INTO PHASES 3
AND 4, WHICH ARE WARMER FOR FLORIDA. THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST MAY ALSO RETROGRADE INTO THE N PACIFIC, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IF THESE TRENDS HOLD, THE CHANCE FOR A
SNAP TOWARD MUCH WARMER WEATHER WOULD INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...
THICK MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH VIRGA. AREA PROXIMITY AND ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST 5 KFT. WE HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY THROUGH
MIDDAY MAINLY NEAR ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL AND POINTS NORTHWARD,
WITH MENTION OF SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST LATE IN THE DAY, BUT IT WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE LOW 60S IN MANY AREAS, EXCEPT UPPER 60S FOR THE
TREASURE COAST.
THE AIR DRIES OUT TONIGHT BELOW 18 KFT, BUT SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
TO STREAM OVERHEAD. IT LOOKS TO BE A CHILLY ONE, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S
(SOME UPPER 30S NORTH OF ORLANDO). THE RISK (20-30%) FOR TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FROST LOOKS CONFINED TO OUR RURAL LOCALES OF
INTERIOR VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS
PLEASANT WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70F AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, EXCEPT FOR
A FEW MORE CLOUDS DOWN SOUTH.
THIS WEEKEND...
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY, BOOSTING HIGH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S NORTH-SOUTH. THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY OVER OUR I-4
CORRIDOR, WITH SOME MEMBERS PUSHING RAIN INTO THIS AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERS REMAIN DRY, SO WE HAVE LIMITED SHOWER
COVERAGE TO 20% OR LESS SOUTH OF ORLANDO, INCREASING TO AROUND 40%
OVER N VOLUSIA COUNTY. THEN, AS THE COLD FRONT SNEAKS SOUTHWARD ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE DISTRICT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS WARM OVER OUR SOUTHERN COMMUNITIES: HIGHS ARE FORECAST
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80F SOUTH.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL, DUE TO LACKING INSTABILITY
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH OF NEEDED
RAIN IS GREATEST, AT > 50%, NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO. REASONABLE
HIGH-END TALLIES OF 2" ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER
THIS SAME AREA, WITH A 10-20% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.
NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER, IT IS BEST TO LOOK AT THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE SETUP AND SOME SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT. WITHOUT
A DOUBT, THE DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE NATION WILL TRY ITS BEST
TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER, WHICH WOULD
QUICKLY TURN OUR WINDS ONSHORE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FAVORABLE JET STREAM POSITIONING AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUPPORT
THICK CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS, THE CHANCE WOULD GROW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS THIS WINDOW THAT HOLDS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AS MENTIONED, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LOOKS TO RESIDE IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN EXTREME COLD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WARMTH OVER THE
TROPICS. COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH READINGS FROM 8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SPACE & TREASURE COASTS, THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STIFLE THE COLD ADVECTION AT TIMES, BUT BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LARGELY FAVORED. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE TREASURE COAST WHICH MAY SNEAK IN SOME 70S FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. WHILE THE RISK FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS NEAR 20%
OR LESS NEXT WEEK FOR OUR INTERIOR AND NORTHERN LOCALES, THERE IS
A SCENARIO WHERE A BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD BE
BRIEFLY DRAWN SOUTHWARD. PLENTY TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, TO BE SURE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE NEARSHORE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VARYING WEST TO NORTH 5-10 KT THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT BY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY. OFFSHORE, A BRIEF FRESHENING OF W
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EASING OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 5-10 KT ON FRIDAY. SEAS
SUBSIDING TOWARD 2-4 FT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND, SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SATURDAY FRESHEN TO 10-15 KT NEARSHORE / 15-20 KT OFFSHORE BEFORE
VEERING WEST AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TO 10-15 KT LATE ON SUNDAY.
SEAS 1-3 FT NEARSHORE, UP TO 4-5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. RAIN AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS BECOME LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
INTRACOASTAL BOATERS WILL NOTICE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE MORE CHOPPY CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH ALONG THE WATERWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. BAND OF -RA ENCROACHING ON KDAB IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH, REACHING KLEE-KSFB AROUND 13Z,
AND KMCO/KISM AROUND 14Z, THEN DISSIPATING. VIS OBS FROM KFIN AND
KOCF HAVE REMAINED P6SM IN -RA, BUT SOME VIS REDUCTIONS ARE BEING
SEEN ON TRAFFIC CAMERAS BETWEEN KDAB AND KFIN, SO MVFR VIS
IMPACTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION, BRIGHT
BANDING ON AREA NEXRADS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY IS POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING WINTRY PRECIP AS LOW AS 6KFT. NRLY WINDS PICK UP TO
AROUND 8 KTS THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS IN THE
-RA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
STARTED TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT INVOF KLEE, AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
TODAY-FRIDAY... POOR DISPERSION TODAY AS MIXING HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW 2 KFT IN MANY INSTANCES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST. MINRH'S IN THE 40S (%) OVER THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ON FRIDAY,
RH'S DIP INTO THE 35-40% RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST, UNDER 8 MPH.
DISPERSIONS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ON FRIDAY, BUT NOT BY MUCH. RHS
RISE DRAMATICALLY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 40 64 50 / 30 0 0 10
MCO 63 43 67 53 / 10 0 0 10
MLB 63 44 67 56 / 20 0 0 10
VRB 66 47 70 58 / 20 0 10 10
LEE 62 41 67 51 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 63 41 67 51 / 20 0 0 10
ORL 63 44 68 53 / 20 0 0 10
FPR 67 46 69 57 / 20 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HALEY
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