680
FXUS62 KMLB 161954
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY, AT LEAST A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY, COLDER THAN NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEK
- SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY, LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ON SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ARE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SETTLED OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF
SANFORD, WHERE DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING. A LACK OF INSOLATION HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ONLY HITTING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
CALM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RETREAT INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY FROM CLERMONT/TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARD. IT IS THESE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING, REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE
AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IF COLDER
TEMPERATURES (LIKE THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE) ARE REALIZED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS, WITH MORE TIME IN THE SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA AND MORE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
RESULTING TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM DAYTONA TO STUART WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL (64 VS. 70 DEGREES). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. BY COMPARISON, SATURDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY
MORNING.
THIS WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY ALLOWS DEEP MOISTURE TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BOTH BE BREEZY DAYS, WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PW OF 1.5-1.6"+ POOL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND MINIMAL "STORM ENERGY"
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING LOW ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
AROUND 400-500 J/KG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE AREA, WHERE A MIX OF MORE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED. THUS, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS WAS INCLUDED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH, RANGING FROM 0.50" TO
1.25" (LOCALLY UP TO 2.00"). FARTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY 0.50" OR
LESS IS FORECAST. RAIN EXITS BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK (PREVIOUS)...UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER, IT IS
BEST TO LOOK AT THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SETUP AND SOME SCENARIOS
THAT COULD PLAY OUT. WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVER THE NATION WILL TRY ITS BEST TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE SURFACE
HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER, WHICH WOULD QUICKLY TURN OUR
WINDS ONSHORE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FAVORABLE JET STREAM
POSITIONING AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUPPORT THICK CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS,
THE CHANCE WOULD GROW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS THIS WINDOW THAT HOLDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AS MENTIONED, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LOOKS TO RESIDE IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN EXTREME COLD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WARMTH OVER THE
TROPICS. COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH READINGS FROM 8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SPACE & TREASURE COASTS, THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STIFLE THE COLD ADVECTION AT TIMES, BUT BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LARGELY FAVORED. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE TREASURE COAST WHICH MAY SNEAK IN SOME 70S FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. WHILE THE RISK FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS NEAR 20%
OR LESS NEXT WEEK FOR OUR INTERIOR AND NORTHERN LOCALES, THERE IS
A SCENARIO WHERE A BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD BE
BRIEFLY DRAWN SOUTHWARD. PLENTY TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, TO BE SURE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME POOR TO
HAZARDOUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
WINDS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS VEER ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, FRESHENING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. SSW
WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST WELL OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THEN, A FRESH BREEZE TURNS NNW BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, VEERING NNE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
SEAS...1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEAS BUILD WELL OFFSHORE UP TO 5-6 FT ON SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY
2-4 FT SEAS ON SUNDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS RETURN BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-6 FT NEARSHORE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NE
AFTER 15Z, VEERING TO OUT OF THE E LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 30 TO LOW
40 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-4). WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH, VEERING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 41 64 51 74 / 0 0 10 30
MCO 45 67 54 77 / 0 0 10 30
MLB 48 67 57 77 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 50 70 59 80 / 0 10 20 10
LEE 42 66 52 75 / 0 0 10 40
SFB 43 67 52 76 / 0 0 10 30
ORL 45 67 54 77 / 0 0 10 30
FPR 50 69 58 79 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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