581
FXUS62 KMLB 170604
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
104 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
- MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY, AT LEAST A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY, COLDER THAN NORMAL AGAIN NEXT WEEK
- SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY, LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ON SUNDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
CLOUD DECK ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BROKE UP A LITTLE, BUT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ARE FILLING BACK IN AND
SPREADING E/NE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
PERSISTING, ESPECIALLY FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.
SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THIS CLOUD COVER,
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, SOUTH OF ORLANDO. WHILE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE, AROUND 20 PERCENT, FOR SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FARTHER
SOUTH, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S, EXCEPT
MID 50S ACROSS COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ARE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AND SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SETTLED OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING NORTH OF
SANFORD, WHERE DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING. A LACK OF INSOLATION HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ONLY HITTING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD. FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
CALM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RETREAT INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY FROM CLERMONT/TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARD. IT IS THESE AREAS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING, REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS, SO
TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, PATCHY
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE
AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IF COLDER
TEMPERATURES (LIKE THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE) ARE REALIZED.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS, WITH MORE TIME IN THE SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA AND MORE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE
RESULTING TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM DAYTONA TO STUART WILL BE FAIRLY
SMALL (64 VS. 70 DEGREES). WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. BY COMPARISON, SATURDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY
MORNING.
THIS WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY ALLOWS DEEP MOISTURE TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
BOTH BE BREEZY DAYS, WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. PW OF 1.5-1.6"+ POOL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND MINIMAL "STORM ENERGY"
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING LOW ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MUCAPE
AROUND 400-500 J/KG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE AREA, WHERE A MIX OF MORE SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED. THUS, A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS WAS INCLUDED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH, RANGING FROM 0.50" TO
1.25" (LOCALLY UP TO 2.00"). FARTHER SOUTH, GENERALLY 0.50" OR
LESS IS FORECAST. RAIN EXITS BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK (PREVIOUS)...UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER, IT IS
BEST TO LOOK AT THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SETUP AND SOME SCENARIOS
THAT COULD PLAY OUT. WITHOUT A DOUBT, THE DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS
OVER THE NATION WILL TRY ITS BEST TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BEGINNING MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP THE SURFACE
HIGH WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER, WHICH WOULD QUICKLY TURN OUR
WINDS ONSHORE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FAVORABLE JET STREAM
POSITIONING AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUPPORT THICK CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE
IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF WELL-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS,
THE CHANCE WOULD GROW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS THIS WINDOW THAT HOLDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AS MENTIONED, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LOOKS TO RESIDE IN A GRADIENT
BETWEEN EXTREME COLD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND WARMTH OVER THE
TROPICS. COMMUNITIES NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH READINGS FROM 8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SPACE & TREASURE COASTS, THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STIFLE THE COLD ADVECTION AT TIMES, BUT BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL LARGELY FAVORED. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE TREASURE COAST WHICH MAY SNEAK IN SOME 70S FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. WHILE THE RISK FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAINS NEAR 20%
OR LESS NEXT WEEK FOR OUR INTERIOR AND NORTHERN LOCALES, THERE IS
A SCENARIO WHERE A BRIEF SHOT OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD BE
BRIEFLY DRAWN SOUTHWARD. PLENTY TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, TO BE SURE!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE)
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS ARRIVE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME POOR TO
HAZARDOUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
WINDS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS VEER ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, FRESHENING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. SSW
WINDS 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST WELL OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THEN, A FRESH BREEZE TURNS NNW BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, VEERING NNE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
SEAS...1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEAS BUILD WELL OFFSHORE UP TO 5-6 FT ON SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY
2-4 FT SEAS ON SUNDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS RETURN BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-6 FT NEARSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
SOUTH OF MCO WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH
FL. THIS CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP SOME NORTH OF KMCO, BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY FROM
KVRB-KSUA THROUGH 00Z-06Z, WITH MVFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MCO
SHOULD PREPARE FOR PREVAILING LIFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z
TOMORROW EVE INTO SAT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY STILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO INTO
TONIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIG/VIS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH FRI AFTN/EVE
FROM THE SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED VCSH SUA-TIX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING E/NE
AROUND 6-10 KNOTS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 30 TO LOW
40 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR (ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-4). WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH, VEERING EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 53 75 60 / 0 40 10 60
MCO 68 56 77 63 / 10 30 10 40
MLB 66 59 78 61 / 10 40 10 20
VRB 68 61 79 62 / 30 40 10 10
LEE 67 54 75 63 / 0 20 20 60
SFB 67 54 77 62 / 0 30 10 50
ORL 67 56 77 63 / 10 30 10 50
FPR 68 60 80 61 / 30 40 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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