966
FXUS62 KMLB 170745
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE TREASURE COAST TODAY,
AND MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
- MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH
HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND WET CONDITION
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW----------
FLORIDA IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SUBTROPICAL ENERGY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY STREAMING TOWARD THE STATE. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PUSHING ACROSS TEXAS. A DOUBLE-
BARRELED CUT-OFF LOW SITS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOCAL COAST. FINALLY,
A POWERFUL BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC AND BERING SEA.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER TRENDS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRAW THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
THIS ENERGY WILL PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., CARVING OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION BY SUNDAY. CROSS-POLAR FLOW, COURTESY
OF THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN EMANATING VIA THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH, WILL DELIVER A WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD AIR
OUTBREAK DEEP INTO THE UNITED STATES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FOR FLORIDA, A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT. A SURGE OF RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THE SHALLOW, ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT DOWN THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF SPRAWLING
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WORKING EASTWARD AT THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
THAT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER FLORIDA FROM
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER JET POSITIONING AND A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
STATE, THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR WAVES OF RAIN,
WIND, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRAIL OFF LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE INITIAL COLD TROUGH EXITS BUT ANOTHER MIGRATES TOWARD THE
EASTERN U.S. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FOLLOW-ON TROUGH. WITH MEAN RIDGING OVER THE WEST,
IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA AS WE CLOSE
OUT JANUARY. CRITICALLY, THE FLATTENING AND/OR WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE N PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BE KEY TO SUSTAINING WARMER WEATHER ACROSS
THE SUNSHINE STATE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SUCH A CHANGE COULD BE IN
THE OFFING IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF, GIVE OR TAKE.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY-SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT IS SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING,
KEEPING READINGS IN THE 50S EXCEPT OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHERE 40S ARE
FOUND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO BEEN
OCCASIONALLY FALLING OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT QUICKER WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOFLO. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, MOST
PLACES SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION PICKS UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ON A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD, CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN WITH 20-40% SHOWER COVERAGE OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT LOW STRATUS
SEEMS TO BE FAVORED. THEN ON SATURDAY, THE WARM FRONT GETS A KICK
NORTH OF HERE. WITH THE COLD FRONT A BIT SLOWER, WE HAVE TRIMMED
RAIN CHANCES BACK CONSIDERABLY (20% NORTH OF ORLANDO, DRY
ELSEWHERE). SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH BREEZE WILL BRING A
TEMPORARY WARMING TREND, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S (NEAR 80 FOR THE
TREASURE COAST).
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE TIMING HAS
SLOWED DOWN A BIT. SO, EXPECTING A HEALTHY GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT (DRY FOR THE TREASURE COAST BUT 40-60% RAIN CHANCES
I-4 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWEST). AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ON
SUNDAY, SO WILL THE RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING OPPORTUNITIES. BY
AFTERNOON, OUR HIGHEST COVERAGE (60-80%) IS FORECAST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-4. THE RAIN ARRIVES LAST FOR THE TREASURE COAST, WHICH
MEANS ANOTHER RUN AT 80F IS ON THE TABLE FOR OUR SOUTHERN LOCALES
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1/2" TO 1 1/4" ARE FORECAST FROM
MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD, AND THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
TALLIES EXCEEDING 2" HAS LESSENED TO 10% OR LESS NORTH OF ORLANDO.
NEXT WEEK...
COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING ON NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND
NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO, WHERE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES 40-60%
CHANCES FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN ONSHORE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
CONTRAST THAT WITH 60-65F FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED TO 60% ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CHANCE FOR 1"+ OF RAIN IS
ALREADY APPROACHING 50% WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE BREEZY NNE WINDS. THIS WEATHER MAKER
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO FUNNEL DEEPER INTO FLORIDA BEHIND IT. THE
RISK FOR IMPACTFUL WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF I-4 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IS INCREASING. MEANWHILE,
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD COULD REMAIN 10 TO 20+ DEGREES WARMER IF WINDS MAINTAIN
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE LINGERS MOISTURE IN THE COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TOP-DOWN MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS ONLY INDICATES A COLD
RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK FOR
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD BE A VERY RAW & DAMP 24-36
HOURS OF WEATHER AROUND HERE!!
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
WITH A SUBTLE WARMING TREND AS WELL (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S). BY
FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% AGAIN AS A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT NE WINDS UP TO 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE, AND
UP TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW BREEZES ON SATURDAY. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY, REMAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE. A
PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND, UP TO 3-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MONDAY.
ROUGH SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT OFFSHORE, SO WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
PERIOD OF POOR OR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN
FACT, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY
CAUSE HAZARDOUS OR EVEN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
VFR CIGS AT OR ABOVE 5KFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
SOUTH OF MCO WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH
FL. THIS CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP SOME NORTH OF KMCO, BUT CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY FROM
KVRB-KSUA THROUGH 00Z-06Z, WITH MVFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MCO
SHOULD PREPARE FOR PREVAILING LIFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFT 00Z
TOMORROW EVE INTO SAT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY STILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO INTO
TONIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIG/VIS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH FRI AFTN/EVE
FROM THE SOUTH AND HAVE ADDED VCSH SUA-TIX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING E/NE
AROUND 6-10 KNOTS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
TODAY... LIGHT NE/E WINDS (8 MPH OR LESS) ARE FORECAST, BUT RH MINS
FALL INTO THE 35-40% RANGE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-4 THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 53 75 60 / 0 40 10 60
MCO 68 56 77 63 / 10 30 10 40
MLB 66 59 78 61 / 10 40 10 20
VRB 68 61 79 62 / 30 40 10 10
LEE 67 54 75 63 / 0 20 20 60
SFB 67 54 77 62 / 0 30 10 50
ORL 67 56 77 63 / 10 30 10 50
FPR 68 60 80 61 / 30 40 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...KELLY
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