276
FXUS62 KMLB 171729
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1229 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE TREASURE COAST TODAY,
AND MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
- MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY AND THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD MORNING WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) TREASURE COAST WATERS AND TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MARTIN COUNTY. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4 WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE NORTH. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE (~ 1022MB) OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 50S. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
5-10MPH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~ 20-50%) ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE OF
FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER EAST-
NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 5-10MPH. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE FORECAST UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW----------
FLORIDA IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK SUBTROPICAL ENERGY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY STREAMING TOWARD THE STATE. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PUSHING ACROSS TEXAS. A DOUBLE-
BARRELED CUT-OFF LOW SITS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOCAL COAST. FINALLY,
A POWERFUL BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC AND BERING SEA.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER TRENDS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIVING OUT OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL DRAW THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.
THIS ENERGY WILL PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., CARVING OUT A DEEP
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NATION BY SUNDAY. CROSS-POLAR FLOW, COURTESY
OF THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN EMANATING VIA THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH, WILL DELIVER A WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC COLD AIR
OUTBREAK DEEP INTO THE UNITED STATES BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FOR FLORIDA, A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT. A SURGE OF RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. THE SHALLOW, ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT DOWN THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN BY LATE MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF SPRAWLING
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.
IN RESPONSE TO A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WORKING EASTWARD AT THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
THAT A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER FLORIDA FROM
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
UPPER JET POSITIONING AND A SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
STATE, THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FOR WAVES OF RAIN,
WIND, AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRAIL OFF LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE INITIAL COLD TROUGH EXITS BUT ANOTHER MIGRATES TOWARD THE
EASTERN U.S. CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FOLLOW-ON TROUGH. WITH MEAN RIDGING OVER THE WEST,
IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH FLORIDA
LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
GENERAL RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA AS WE CLOSE
OUT JANUARY. CRITICALLY, THE FLATTENING AND/OR WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE N PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BE KEY TO SUSTAINING WARMER WEATHER ACROSS
THE SUNSHINE STATE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SUCH A CHANGE COULD BE IN
THE OFFING IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A HALF, GIVE OR TAKE.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
TODAY-SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE DISTRICT IS SHROUDED IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING,
KEEPING READINGS IN THE 50S EXCEPT OVER OUR FAR NORTH WHERE 40S ARE
FOUND UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SPRINKLES AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
ALSO BEEN OCCASIONALLY FALLING OVER OUR SOUTHERN HALF. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT QUICKER WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY SITS OVER SOFLO. THIS HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, MOST
PLACES SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION PICKS UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ON A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD, CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN WITH 20-40% SHOWER COVERAGE OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA.
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG, BUT LOW STRATUS
SEEMS TO BE FAVORED. THEN ON SATURDAY, THE WARM FRONT GETS A KICK
NORTH OF HERE. WITH THE COLD FRONT A BIT SLOWER, WE HAVE TRIMMED
RAIN CHANCES BACK CONSIDERABLY (20% NORTH OF ORLANDO, DRY
ELSEWHERE). SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND A SOUTH BREEZE WILL BRING A
TEMPORARY WARMING TREND, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S (NEAR 80F FOR THE
TREASURE COAST).
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE TIMING HAS
SLOWED DOWN A BIT. SO, EXPECTING A HEALTHY GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT (DRY FOR THE TREASURE COAST BUT 40-60% RAIN CHANCES
I-4 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWEST). AS THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ON
SUNDAY, SO WILL THE RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING OPPORTUNITIES. BY
AFTERNOON, OUR HIGHEST COVERAGE (60-80%) IS FORECAST NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-4. THE RAIN ARRIVES LAST FOR THE TREASURE COAST, WHICH
MEANS ANOTHER RUN AT 80F IS ON THE TABLE FOR OUR SOUTHERN LOCALES
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY. MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1/2" TO 1 1/4" ARE FORECAST FROM
MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARD, AND THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN
TALLIES EXCEEDING 2" HAS LESSENED TO 10% OR LESS NORTH OF ORLANDO.
NEXT WEEK...
COLDER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING ON NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND
NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO, WHERE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES 40-60%
CHANCES FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S. WINDS BEGIN TO TURN ONSHORE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 50F ACROSS PARTS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
CONTRAST THAT WITH 60-65F FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED TO 60% ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS
WITH A FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CHANCE FOR 1"+ OF RAIN IS
ALREADY APPROACHING 50% WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD CAUSE BREEZY NNE WINDS. THIS WEATHER MAKER
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO FUNNEL DEEPER INTO FLORIDA BEHIND IT. THE
RISK FOR IMPACTFUL WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S NEAR AND
NORTHWEST OF I-4 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IS INCREASING. MEANWHILE,
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTHWARD COULD REMAIN 10 TO 20+ DEGREES WARMER IF WINDS MAINTAIN
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE LINGERS MOISTURE IN THE COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TOP-DOWN MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS ONLY INDICATES A COLD
RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK FOR
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD BE A VERY RAW & DAMP 24-36
HOURS OF WEATHER AROUND HERE!!
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
WITH A SUBTLE WARMING TREND AS WELL (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S). BY
FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% AGAIN AS A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT NE WINDS UP TO 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE, AND
UP TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT,
LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW BREEZES ON SATURDAY. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY, REMAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE. A
PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND, UP TO 3-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON MONDAY.
ROUGH SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT OFFSHORE, SO WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
PERIOD OF POOR OR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE NEW WEEK. IN
FACT, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY
CAUSE HAZARDOUS OR EVEN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS ECFL TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE LOWER CIGS AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA'S LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT; FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND TRANSITIONING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE (SOUTH TO
NORTH) BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON (NORTH), BUT PATIENCE MAY BE NECESSARY HERE. HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (SOUTH-TREASURE
COAST). HAVE INHERITED "VICINITY" WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND MAY ADD
TEMPO GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE GROWS. NE/E WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER ESE/SE LATER THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, AND MORE SW/WSW
DURING THE DAY ON SAT (WARM SECTOR). PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
TODAY... LIGHT NE/E WINDS (8 MPH OR LESS) ARE FORECAST, BUT RH MINS
FALL INTO THE 35-40% RANGE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-4 THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE AREA-WIDE THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 75 60 70 / 40 10 60 80
MCO 58 77 64 72 / 30 10 40 80
MLB 59 77 62 76 / 40 10 20 70
VRB 61 81 63 80 / 40 10 10 60
LEE 56 76 63 69 / 20 20 60 80
SFB 56 77 63 72 / 30 10 50 80
ORL 57 77 63 72 / 30 10 50 80
FPR 61 80 62 80 / 40 10 10 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
UPDATE...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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