591
FXUS62 KMLB 172154
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
454 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TREASURE
COAST TODAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA.
- MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY AND THEN A A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY
WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE
OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF THIS WEEK AND A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WET CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AND COLD
MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING
AND EACH MORNING INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 453 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
OKEECHOBEE, SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE, AND MARTIN COUNTIES, IN ADDITION
TO OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE (~1022MB) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5-10MPH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (POPS ~20-50%) SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO
THIS EVENING OVER THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-40%) FORECAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY (POPS ~20%) AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5-10MPH ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
SOUTHWEST INTO SATURDAY AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
(~40-80%) AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30-40MPH ON SUNDAY (MAINLY LATE-MORNING AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM NW TO SE OVER ECFL). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, IN ADDITION
TO COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S TO THE
SOUTH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 AND TO NORTHWEST MARTIN COUNTY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... THE DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED TO 60-70% ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CHANCE FOR
1"+ OF RAIN IS ALREADY APPROACHING 50% WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY NNE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER MAKER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WITH
COLDER AIR LIKELY TO FUNNEL DEEPER OVER FLORIDA BEHIND IT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ARE FORECAST NORTH OF I-4
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4 TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TO THE
SOUTH OF I-4 TO WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY. THE RISK FOR IMPACTFUL
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
I-4 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IS INCREASING. MEANWHILE, ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN 10 TO 20+ DEGREES WARMER IF
WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE LINGERS MOISTURE IN THE COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TOP-DOWN MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS ONLY INDICATES A COLD
RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK FOR
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD BE A VERY RAW & DAMP 24-36
HOURS OF WEATHER AROUND HERE!
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
WITH A SUBTLE WARMING TREND AS WELL (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S).
BY FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% AGAIN AS A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 453 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS INTO SATURDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
8-14KTS ARE EXPECTED VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND 20-25KTS OFFSHORE (20-60NM). SEAS
TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4AM
THROUGH 1PM FOR THE OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY, AND REMAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS
NEARSHORE AND TO 20-25KTS OFFSHORE ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND, UP TO 3-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHTING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30-40MPH.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ROUGH SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT OFFSHORE, SO WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THE PERIOD OF POOR OR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO
THE NEW WEEK. IN FACT, HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE THE ATLANTIC FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS ECFL TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PRODUCE LOWER CIGS AND ISOLD-SCT SHRA'S LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT; FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND TRANSITIONING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS LIKELY WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE (SOUTH TO
NORTH) BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SAT MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON (NORTH), BUT PATIENCE MAY BE NECESSARY HERE. HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (SOUTH-TREASURE
COAST). HAVE INHERITED "VICINITY" WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND MAY ADD
TEMPO GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE GROWS. NE/E WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER ESE/SE LATER THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, AND MORE SW/WSW
DURING THE DAY ON SAT (WARM SECTOR). PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 75 60 70 / 20 20 60 80
MCO 58 77 64 72 / 20 10 40 80
MLB 59 77 62 76 / 30 20 20 80
VRB 61 81 63 80 / 30 20 10 70
LEE 56 76 63 69 / 10 20 70 80
SFB 56 77 63 72 / 20 10 50 80
ORL 57 77 63 72 / 20 10 40 80
FPR 61 80 62 80 / 30 20 10 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page