757
FXUS62 KMLB 180555
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1255 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD.
- MUCH WARMER ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH
HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CAPABLE OF
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF THIS WEEK, AND A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WET CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AND COLD MORNING
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING AND EACH
MORNING INTO MIDWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUD
COVER HAS OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, INCREASING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SINK THROUGH THE
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS VEER
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 MPH BY
SUNRISE. THE INCREASING WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, AND HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
HOWEVER, LOWERING STRATUS COULD CAUSE BRIEF SURFACE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE,
WIDELY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, AND ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 453 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
OKEECHOBEE, SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE, AND MARTIN COUNTIES, IN ADDITION
TO OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE (~1022MB) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5-10MPH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (POPS ~20-50%) SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO
THIS EVENING OVER THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS ~20-40%) FORECAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY (POPS ~20%) AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING AT 5-10MPH ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
SOUTHWEST INTO SATURDAY AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING WITH CLOUDY SKIES.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
(~40-80%) AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30-40MPH ON SUNDAY (MAINLY LATE-MORNING AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM NW TO SE OVER ECFL). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4, IN ADDITION
TO COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S TO THE
SOUTH UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WITH THE LOW 30S TO
MID 40S FORECAST TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 AND TO NORTHWEST MARTIN COUNTY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... THE DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT THE GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED TO 60-70% ON TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE CHANCE FOR
1"+ OF RAIN IS ALREADY APPROACHING 50% WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY NNE
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WEATHER MAKER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WITH
COLDER AIR LIKELY TO FUNNEL DEEPER OVER FLORIDA BEHIND IT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ARE FORECAST NORTH OF I-4
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4 TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TO THE
SOUTH OF I-4 TO WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY. THE RISK FOR IMPACTFUL
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
I-4 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IS INCREASING. MEANWHILE, ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES AT COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN 10 TO 20+ DEGREES WARMER IF
WINDS MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE LINGERS MOISTURE IN THE COLDER AIR ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TOP-DOWN MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS ONLY INDICATES A COLD
RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK FOR
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NEVERTHELESS, IT COULD BE A VERY RAW & DAMP 24-36
HOURS OF WEATHER AROUND HERE!
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON THURSDAY,
WITH A SUBTLE WARMING TREND AS WELL (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S).
BY FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TO 20-40% AGAIN AS A CLUSTER OF
MEMBERS DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARD FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 954 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
TONIGHT-SATURDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST- NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE OF
FLORIDA. EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-14KTS ARE EXPECTED VEER SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT 10-15KTS
NEARSHORE AND 20-25KTS OFFSHORE (20-60NM). SEAS TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE
AND UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 4AM THROUGH 1PM FOR THE
OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)... POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN WESTERLY ON SUNDAY, AND REMAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE. A PERIOD OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS
NEARSHORE AND TO 20-25KTS OFFSHORE ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE THIS WEEKEND, UP TO 3-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHTING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30-40MPH.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY. ROUGH SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT OFFSHORE, SO WE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THE PERIOD OF POOR OR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO
THE NEW WEEK. IN FACT, HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE THE ATLANTIC FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL
SPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS NORTHWARD WITH TEMPO LIFR POSSIBLE. BRIEF
VSBY REDUCTIONS (5-6SM) IN -SHRA BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE
THE STRATUS. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF CENTRAL FL BY MID
DAY SAT, CLOUD CIGS WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS (MCO/SFB/DAB) BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 18Z OR SO. ON SAT, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SW 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-24KT AS THE WARM SECTOR IS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 62 71 39 / 20 80 90 10
MCO 77 65 74 44 / 10 70 90 10
MLB 77 63 77 46 / 10 40 80 20
VRB 80 63 81 50 / 10 20 60 20
LEE 75 64 69 39 / 10 80 90 10
SFB 77 64 72 41 / 10 80 90 10
ORL 77 65 73 42 / 10 80 90 10
FPR 80 63 81 50 / 10 20 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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