139
FXUS62 KMLB 190251
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND A FEW STORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
- FLORIDA WILL OCCASIONALLY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE U.S. WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY
LIKELY ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO
DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
- CONFIDENCE IN A SOUTHERN U.S. WINTER STORM IS INCREASING FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN, WIND, AND DANGEROUS BEACH/BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA, AND A MILD NIGHT IS IN
STORE. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY OBSERVED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
EVENING, ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF SUNRISE (30-50%). SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-7 MPH THIS EVENING INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS,
BECOMING 10-15 MPH BY DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY... LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE (~1008MB) IS SITUATED OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-18MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25-30MPH ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING
BEFORE BRIEFLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AT 8-12 MPH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BEFORE THE LOW
(~1000MB) IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED (20-60%) SHOWERS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (30-80%) AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHTING STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING TO THE NORTH
OF SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY TO WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE SOUTH. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS ON SUNDAY OVER AREAS NORTH OF INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS TO 50-60MPH (5-14% CHANCE OF 60MPH
WINDS WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK), AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO (2-4% CHANCE).
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20MPH AND GUSTS TO 20-30MPH AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS(POPS ~20-30%) FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST
TO EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS (POPS ~50-70%) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST MONDAY WITH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 70S FORECAST ON TUESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 50S AND WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
(NORTH AND WEST OF THE TREASURE COAST). THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS THE LOW 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAIN COVERAGE
STILL DIFFER. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY (POPS
50-70%. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHARPENING FRONT SETS UP WILL
DETERMINE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN; IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW
THIS. WINDS TURN ONSHORE WHICH WILL RESULT IN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST OF I-4 (60S, EVEN NEARING 70 FOR THE
TREASURE COAST).
THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE BY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING THE HIGH RAIN COVERAGE. THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 60-70% CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD AGAIN, AND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO. THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS
TO BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THIS AREA. TRAVELERS
PLANNING TO HEAD TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD MAY
ENCOUNTER A RARE WINTER STORM WITH FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST.
REST OF NEXT WEEK...
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SOMETIME FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME POOR TO HAZARDOUS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND
10-15KTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KTS NEARSHORE AND
20-28KTS OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WITH GUSTS TO 30-34KTS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. 1-3FT SEAS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2-4FT WITH UP TO
5-6FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD EAST-
SOUTHEAST MOVING SHOWERS (30-80%) ARE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS ON SUNDAY OVER AREAS NORTH OF INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS TO 50-60MPH (5-14% CHANCE OF 60MPH WINDS WHERE
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK), AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT (2-4%
CHANCE).
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTH AT 15-20KTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD
ON MONDAY FROM 3-5FT NEARSHORE UP TO 5-8FT OFFSHORE AND IN THE
GULF STREAM. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE EASTERN
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AS A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT, SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND
LOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE INTRODUCED WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO FALL A LITTLE EARLIER AT LEE
WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE FIRST. VCSH TRANSITIONS TO SHRA
ACROSS THE NORTH AS AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VCTS
HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED AT THESE SITES FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN LINE. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES MLB AND THE TREASURE COAST AND
ONLY HAVE "VICINITY" WORDING INCLUDED FOR THESE TERMINALS. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS TONIGHT BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH WIND SPEEDS FURTHER INCREASING THROUGH LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME INTO SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 73 39 52 / 40 80 10 0
MCO 65 74 45 54 / 20 80 10 0
MLB 64 78 45 61 / 10 80 20 0
VRB 65 82 48 64 / 10 60 20 10
LEE 65 72 40 51 / 50 80 10 0
SFB 66 75 42 52 / 30 80 10 0
ORL 66 75 44 53 / 20 80 10 0
FPR 64 81 48 63 / 10 60 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...LAW
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