168
FXUS62 KMLB 192350
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
650 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
- BREEZY/GUSTY WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES ENDING SOUTH OF ORLANDO
LATE TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD.
- WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
- RAIN, WIND, AND DANGEROUS BEACH/BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...STORMS REGENERATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSHED THROUGH ORANGE, BREVARD, AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND INTO LATE TODAY IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. PRIMARY
LIGHTNING STORM THREATS REMAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH IN A STORM
OR TWO, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS
WANING INTO LATE AFTERNOON.
OUR WIND ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 3PM FOR BREVARD-OSCEOLA COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THRU
NEAR SUNSET. SW/WSW DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
THIS EVENING TO W/NW AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
NEARS/PASSES THRU THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
TONIGHT 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING
SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL STILL BE
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ACROSS ECFL, THEREFORE RETAINING
CONSIDERABLY TO MCLOUDY SKIES THRU TONIGHT.
OUR MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY INTO THE L-M70S
NORTHWARD WITH L-M80S FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, EXPECT COLDER TEMPS
TONIGHT, POST-FRONTAL, WITH U30S TO L40S ALONG/NORTH OF I-4, THEN
40S FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
WITH L50S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST - PERHAPS A FEW M50S EASTERN
MARTIN COUNTY. LOWEST WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH L-M30S NORTH OF I-4
TOWARD SUNRISE, AND M-U30S TO L40S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE, EXCEPT
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL STAY HIGHER.
MON-WED...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS MON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS EC FL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS (POPS ~20%) FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NORTHWARD MON OVERNIGHT-TUE AS A
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TUE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS (POPS ~50-60%) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE MOST IF NOT
ALL DAY TUE BECOME WIDESPREAD. IT IS UNUSUAL TO GET AN ALL-DAY RAIN
HERE IN CENTRAL FL (OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS) BUT CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR THIS INCLUDING A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OVERRUNNING
AND UPPER SUPPORT. THE MAIN HAZARDS TUE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS MON WILL BE
MUCH BELOW NORMAL ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 60S TREASURE COAST. UPPER 50S LAKE COUNTY TO LOW 70S
TREASURE COAST FORECAST ON TUE. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MON
AND TUE MORNINGS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NORTH TO
MID 50S TREASURE COAST AND LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW-MID
30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I 4 MON MORNING AND U30S TO L40S TUE MORNING.
THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS
PREDICTED TO MOVE BY ON TUE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING THE HIGH RAIN COVERAGE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IS INCREASING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A 60-70% CHANCE OF PEAK GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, COLDER AIR IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD AGAIN, AND
SUNRISE WED TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
OF ORLANDO. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON WED.
THU-SAT...PREVIOUS...A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES
ALONG THE NEARBY STALLED FRONT. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN
ON THU (POPS 40-50%). DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SHARPENING
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WILL DETERMINE THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
RAIN. WINDS TURN ONSHORE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES
ESP SOUTHEAST OF I-4 WITH LOW TO MID 70S TREASURE COAST FOR THU.
FINALLY, SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI-
SAT BUT COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH MAX
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 50S NORTH OF I 4 AND LOWS SAT MORNING IN THE
30S ACROSS ALL THE INTERIOR, INCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA) REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS. BRING SCA
NEAR SHORE AT 00Z/7PM TO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES TO NORTH/SOUTH.
WINDS WILL VEER NW TO N BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
AND BRING ADVISORY CONDITIONS (NEAR 20 KTS) TO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY INTO TONIGHT WITH 2-3 FT SEAS
NEAR THE COAST BUILDING TO 3-5 FT (PERHAPS 4-6 FT) OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FURTHER DETERIORATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE AS NORTH
WINDS INCREASE AND BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-8 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
MON-THU...PREVIOUS...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST MON DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING 7 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM. A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUE AND MOVE
NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
WED. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AS A PERIOD
OF DANGEROUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TUE INTO WED.
DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK, WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR BOATING INTERESTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF SUA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BUILDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOSTLY
REMAINING VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS VEER NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KTS AT THE START
OF THE 00Z TAF ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE TONIGHT,
BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS ARE THEN
FORECAST TOMORROW WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15-22 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 40 54 44 60 / 10 0 40 100
MCO 45 54 45 59 / 10 0 50 100
MLB 47 60 50 66 / 10 10 50 100
VRB 51 65 54 71 / 10 10 50 90
LEE 40 52 41 56 / 10 0 40 90
SFB 43 54 44 59 / 10 0 40 100
ORL 44 54 45 59 / 10 0 50 100
FPR 51 64 54 70 / 10 10 50 90
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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