458
FXUS62 KMLB 201445
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
- MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A COLD RAIN DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BECOMING WINDY WITH A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH, POUNDING SURF ALONG THE COAST
ESPECIALLY CAPE NORTHWARD.
- COLDEST TEMPS FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE
THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT TREASURE COAST WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH
ACTIVITY FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINING HIGH THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S ACROSS BREVARD TO OSCEOLA
AND COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY...COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL SPILL DOWN THE FL PENINSULA AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS TO
OUR SOUTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD THOUGH SOME
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ESP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.
CLOUDIER CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
BELOW NORMAL, ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S ORLANDO NORTHWARD.
TONIGHT...THE OLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF I 4 EARLY IN
THE NIGHT AS THEY REACH THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S THEN PLATEAU AND
EVEN SLOWLY RISE LATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE. LOW TEMPS WILL HOLD IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
TUE-WED...PRETTY GLOOMY CONDS FOR CENTRAL FL WITH OVERCAST SKIES,
AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO
RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
ESSENTIALLY, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE LOWER
PRESSURE TO OUR SE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH BREAKING WAVES
OF 7-9 FEET AT THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED
PARTICULARLY ON VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD. RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY
HIGH WITH 70-90% TUE AND TUE NIGHT FALLING TO 50-70% WED AS THE
DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ON TUE, MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
NEAR 70 ALONG MARTIN COAST. NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
BUT IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ACROSS LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SOME
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN WED WITH MAX TEMPS HOLDING IN THE LOW-
MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID 60S SOUTH WITH LOW CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE DAY.
THU-SUN...A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE NEARBY
STALLED FRONT THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 40-50%), DEPARTING
THU NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FRI-SAT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 30S IS FORECAST BY SAT MORNING WITH LOW-MID 40S
IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
FINALLY RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN,
LOCAL WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AND ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO TAKE
HOLD. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 18-20
KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND
SEAS ARE BUILDING AS FLOW LOSES THE OFFSHORE (NW) WIND COMPONENT.
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS VEER NE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND SPEEDS
DECREASE 12-15 KNOTS SO SCA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
TUE-WED...THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH FL BY TUE AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE INCREASING.
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY UP TO 13 FT IN THE GULF STREAM WITH 7-10
FEET NEARSHORE.
THU-FRI...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG
THE OLD FRONT THU-THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF N/NW WINDS
BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO, AT TIMES, DANGEROUS
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY AS WE ARE IN A
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. N WINDS 8-15 G15-20 KT THROUGH 00Z.
MVFR CIGS AND SHRA WILL CREEP NORTHWARD TONIGHT FROM THE TREASURE
COAST UP TOWARD GREATER ORLANDO BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. SOME
DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE REGARDING CIGS, BUT IT APPEARS THE ONLY
TERMINALS WHERE CHANCE OF IFR REACHES 20-30% IS FPR/SUA AFTER
21/09Z. PLAN FOR OFF-AND-ON SHRA AND MVFR TO OCNL IFR CIGS ON
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 44 60 43 / 0 40 90 90
MCO 55 45 57 45 / 0 60 90 90
MLB 58 50 65 52 / 0 70 90 90
VRB 62 54 69 56 / 10 70 90 80
LEE 53 42 55 40 / 0 40 80 90
SFB 54 44 59 45 / 0 50 90 90
ORL 55 45 59 45 / 0 50 90 90
FPR 62 54 68 55 / 10 60 80 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-
555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572-575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HEIL
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