612
FXUS62 KMLB 201808
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
108 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TODAY FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT TREASURE COAST WATERS THIS MORNING, WITH
ACTIVITY FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINING HIGH THROUGH
THE DAY. SOME THINNING IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 50S ACROSS BREVARD TO OSCEOLA
AND COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND REACHING THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
TODAY/TONIGHT...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 18-20
KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND
SEAS ARE BUILDING AS FLOW LOSES THE OFFSHORE (NW) WIND COMPONENT.
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS VEER NE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND SPEEDS
DECREASE 12-15 KNOTS SO SCA SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
TUE-WED...THE OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH FL BY TUE AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A
SURGE OF NORTH WINDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE INCREASING.
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY UP TO 13 FT IN THE GULF STREAM WITH 7-10
FEET NEARSHORE.
THU-FRI...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG
THE OLD FRONT THU-THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF N/NW WINDS
BRINGING COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO, AT TIMES, DANGEROUS
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG/VIS
SOUTH OF KVRB THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS FROM
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z, SHOWERS WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD, BRINGING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS BY 17/18Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT
KSUA/KFPR WHERE PREVAILING REDUCTIONS ARE INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 43 59 42 55 / 40 80 100 70
MCO 44 57 43 54 / 50 80 90 60
MLB 50 63 51 62 / 60 80 90 70
VRB 53 66 55 65 / 60 70 90 70
LEE 41 55 39 51 / 30 80 90 60
SFB 44 58 43 54 / 40 80 90 60
ORL 44 58 43 54 / 50 80 90 60
FPR 53 66 55 65 / 60 70 80 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-
555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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