731
FXUS62 KMLB 211410
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
- COLD RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT, DECREASING
WEDNESDAY.
- BECOMING WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
SPREADING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH, POUNDING SURF AND BEACH EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.
- EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK BUT
INCREASED SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES THIS MORNING, AND IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
PERSIST, WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM OSCEOLA NORTHWARD AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AND
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A CHANGE FROM THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE
COUNTIES FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SURGE OF
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
COMBINED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. COMBINED
WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE, THIS WILL CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO FEEL PARTICULARLY COLD, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE SHELTER. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 40S, WITH SOME SPOTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST
REMAINING IN THE 50S.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...GLOOMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH COLD TEMPS,
INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
STEADIER RAIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE 60-90% INTO WED. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT BETWEEN A COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE FL AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A CHILLY NORTH BREEZE TODAY, THE NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT REACHING 15-25 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (40-45 MPH) ALONG COAST, ESP VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD COUNTIES. HAVE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY STARTING THIS
EVENING ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST, SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NIGHT ASSOCD WITH THE NORTHERLY SURGE. THIS INCREASE IN NORTH
WINDS WILL PRODUCE A RAPID INCREASE IN SEAS, WITH BREAKING WAVES
OF 8-10 FEET ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS PEAKING
NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 130 AM. AS A RESULT, THOUGHT IT
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA DESPITE THE
SHORT NATURE OF THE EVENT. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF IT SHOULD
BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD.
MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OSCEOLA NORTHWARD WITH
MILDER TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE
TO A MORE ONSHORE (NE) FLOW. BUT THE INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO WITH LOW 40S I 4 CORRIDOR TO THE MID 50S
TREASURE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE 30S AND NORTH
WINDS 15-20 MPH WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
AREAS N/W OF ORLANDO. AND THIS WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING. COLLABORATED WITH JAX AND TBW ABOUT FROZEN PRECIP
POTENTIAL AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT SOME ICE PELLETS (SLEET)
COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH (LAKE
GEORGE AREA) LATE TONIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ON WED, THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH A CHILLY NORTH BREEZE HOLDING MAX TEMPS MUCH
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST CAPE SOUTHWARD.
THU-MON...A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST LATE
WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE NEARBY
STALLED FRONT THU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS 40-50%), DEPARTING
THU NIGHT. MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FRI-SAT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 30S IS FORECAST BY SAT MORNING WITH LOW-MID 40S
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
SUNSHINE, MAX TEMPS MAY STILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. BUT A WARMING
TREND APPEARS IN THE CARDS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN, VEERING THE LOCAL WINDS ONSHORE
AND FINALLY LOSING THE NORTH WIND COMPONENT. LOWS SUN MORNING IN
THE 40S AND 50S, RISING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND A COUPLE/FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON MON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE OLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA HAS STARTED TO RETREAT BACK
NORTHWARD WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP AFFECTING MUCH OF THE LOCAL ATLC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES. N-NE
WINDS 12-16 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE LESS THAN IDEAL CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. BUT BOATERS ARE WARNED THAT CONDS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE EARLY THIS EVENING FIRST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST,
SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS PRODUCES
GALE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY TO 9-11 FEET
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD WATERS AND 7-9
FEET SOUTHWARD. UP TO 14 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM. ANOTHER LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY, FINALLY DRAGGING THE FRONT
AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS ON FRIDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THIS WEEKEND AS SEAS FALL BELOW 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM SAT AND BELOW 6 FEET ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
MCO IMPACTS:
- OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING, PREVAILING MVFR BY 21/17Z.
- APPROX 70% CHANCE OF IFR CONDS AFTER 21/22Z, THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONDITIONAL 20% CHANCE OF LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN.
- NORTHERLY WIND SURGE AROUND 22/02Z, GUSTS 20-25 KT.
CHALLENGING FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING, LOWERING CIGS INTO IFR IN SOME CASES
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLOW
DECREASE IN PREVAILING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH IFR IN MOST
PLACES TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD. COLD FRONT SLIPPING
SOUTH WILL SEND A SURGE OF N WINDS, GUSTING 15-25 KT AROUND
GREATER ORLANDO AFTER 22/01Z AND AFTER. COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GUST OVER 30 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 59 41 54 47 / 80 100 80 30
MCO 58 42 52 49 / 80 100 70 30
MLB 63 48 60 52 / 80 100 90 40
VRB 67 52 64 56 / 80 90 90 40
LEE 56 37 50 43 / 70 100 50 20
SFB 59 40 53 47 / 80 100 70 30
ORL 58 40 53 48 / 80 100 70 30
FPR 67 52 63 56 / 80 90 80 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-141-144.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ141-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR FLZ141-347-447.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...HEIL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page