389
FXUS62 KMLB 220740
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
- COLD, DAMP, AND BREEZY TODAY, WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD. HAZARDOUS BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- STEADY RAIN EASES LATER THIS MORNING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AREAS OF FROST AND BITTER WIND CHILLS IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S, ESPECIALLY INLAND AND NORTH OF ORLANDO. A
WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
----------SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW----------
A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK, A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE IS RACING EASTWARD OVER N FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, AIDED
BY THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 130 KT UPPER JET SEGMENT OVER
GEORGIA AND IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ANTECEDENT COLD AIR
INTERACTING WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS CAUSED A RARE AND HISTORIC
WINTER STORM WITH, IN SOME CASES, RECORD SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. RICH MOISTURE EXITS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A LINGERING AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR OVER THE W ATLANTIC BY EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING WELL OFFSHORE. AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IS THEN
FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY, FORCING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FINAL SURGE
OF COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE STATE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, WITH 5
KFT TEMPERATURES FALLING 5 TO 8 DEG C BELOW NORMAL.
FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK, AT LEAST MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN OUR FORECAST. 21/12Z CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS A CLASSIC REX
BLOCK DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS
CLOSE TO HUDSON BAY. THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF
THE NATION IS PROJECTED TO ERODE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
POLAR JET DISTURBANCES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH FARTHER NORTH, LIMITING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY (1/29) OR THURSDAY
(1/30).
THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY HAVE SOME STAYING POWER, AT LEAST OVER
FLORIDA, INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY. THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO
SWING FROM PHASE 3 INTO 4 OR THE NULL PHASE. NAO/AO BLOCKING APPEARS
NON-EXISTENT, AND THE EPO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE, AN
INDICATION THAT MILDER PACIFIC AIR SHOULD ENTER THE U.S. DEEPER INTO
EARLY FEBRUARY, LONG-RANGE MODELING LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LA NINA
ANALOGS. THE CPC TWO-WEEK OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER FLORIDA.
------SHORT-TERM MESOSCALE ANALYSIS------
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT, WITH NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SOUNDING ANALYSIS FROM THE HREF REVEALED AN
ABOVE-CRITICAL PROFILE FOR BOTH TEMP AND WET BULB THROUGH THE LOWEST
10 KFT. HOWEVER, ACARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE COLUMN
IS 1-2 DEG C COOLER THAN OUR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. A FEW -UP (SLEET)
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING OVER
LEESBURG, OCALA, AND PALATKA. AFTER SHAVING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF
THE SOUNDING, WE STILL LARGELY HAVE A RAIN PROFILE DUE TO THE +6C
TEMP AT H8 AND ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. BY 13-15Z, THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT ABOVE H8. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. BY 14Z, A SMALL BELOW-CRITICAL LAYER
EXISTS, JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, ON PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AT LEE. IF
ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING CAN OCCUR, A BIT OF SLEET COULD BRIEFLY MIX
IN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN LAKE & VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
-------SENSIBLE WEATHER & IMPACTS-------
THROUGH TONIGHT...
IT'S NICE TO GET A SOAKING RAIN THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT IT LEAVES
MUCH TO BE DESIRED IF YOU LONG FOR SUNSHINE AND WARMTH. WE WILL
CONTEND WITH COLD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE THE
ACTIVITY PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
(20%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
COMMUNITIES; NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
GUSTY NORTH BREEZES WILL GIFT US A TASTE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
BOTTLED UP JUST TO OUR NORTH. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-4. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, A FEW LUCKY SPOTS MAY GET A POCKET OF SUNSHINE, BUT IT
WILL NOT FEEL ALL THAT WARM. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD ONLY STRUGGLE INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S, EXCEPT THE LOW 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
LEESBURG MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 50F TODAY. NOT THAT THE WEATHER IS ALL
THAT INVITING, BUT SUFFICE TO SAY THAT BEACH CONDITIONS REMAIN
HAZARDOUS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COAST
ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK FOR DEADLY RIP CURRENTS!
WE KEPT A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. BY MORNING, A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FROM
ORLANDO SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE. QUITE A RANGE
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST, WITH UPPER 30S NEAR LEESBURG, MID
40S ALONG I-4, AND MID 50S BY THE TIME YOU REACH STUART.
THURSDAY...
THERE'S SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION OF A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY, THOUGH THE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIGHT. CONTINUED
OUR 40-60% RAIN COVERAGE. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS, WE STAY CHILLY WITH
50S FROM THE SPACE COAST NORTHWARD. THE TREASURE COAST LOOKS A
LITTLE MILDER IN THE MID 60S.
SHOWERS SLOWLY EXIT OFF OUR COAST BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY. WE WENT A BIT
ABOVE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, BUT THIS STILL GIVES US SOME MID/UPPER
30S ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-4.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...
ONE MORE WAVE OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE ON THE WAY BEFORE WE START
TO "THAW" OUT. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SCOUR OUT ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARD THE AREA. WELL-BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY (50S). GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER ON
SATURDAY MORNING. WE STAYED JUST ABOVE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE YET
AGAIN, BUT THAT IS NOT MUCH OF A CONSOLATION. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID 30S
ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALL OF VOLUSIA COUNTY, MODERATING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST FROM
MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. ADDED IN AREAS OF FROST OVER A LARGE CHUNK OF
THE DISTRICT.
THESE MAY BE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON, AND SENSITIVE
VEGETATION WILL LIKELY NEED SOME PROTECTION. IN FACT, THERE IS A
~40% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT FREEZE GENERALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO. STILL
FEEL THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THESE READINGS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING WINDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO COMPLETELY RELAX. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WOULD RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MANY LOCALES. SATURDAY
LOOKS BRIGHT AND CHILLY WITH TEMPS STILL 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST AS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS HOLD TO
OUR NORTHWEST. AFTER ONE LAST COLD MORNING ON SUNDAY (UPPER 30S
NORTH OF ORLANDO), STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
PLENTY OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVERNIGHT AT THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS. AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH, N WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN 10-15
KT TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING WELL OFFSHORE SHOULD FRESHEN
OUR WINDS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, NW 15-20 KT. HIGH
PRESSURE, FINALLY, WILL MAKE THE WINDS MORE MANAGEABLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, NE 10-15 KT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THE
HIGHEST SEAS ARE FORECAST TODAY (6-10 FT NEARSHORE, UP TO 14 FT IN
THE GULF STREAM). O N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-8 FT OFFSHORE,
THE GALE WARNING TRANSITIONS TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS, SEAS MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER,
MORE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIFR CIGS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AFTER 09Z, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST FROM AROUND THE CAPE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO HOLD ON
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING, BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OUT OF THE NORTH, WITH WIND SPEEDS THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
CONTINUING GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
FRIDAY... RH MINIMA FALL TO 35-40% BY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF I-4,
AMID NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-15 MPH. OTHERWISE, RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 52 43 54 38 / 70 20 60 20
MCO 52 44 54 39 / 70 20 60 10
MLB 58 49 59 44 / 80 30 60 20
VRB 62 53 63 47 / 80 30 60 20
LEE 48 39 52 35 / 60 10 40 10
SFB 51 43 54 37 / 70 20 50 10
ORL 51 44 54 38 / 70 20 60 10
FPR 61 52 64 48 / 80 30 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-141-144.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ141-154-
159-164-347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-
347-447-647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550-552-
555-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...HEIL
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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