846
FXUS62 KMLB 152101
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED 9 AM TO 4 PM SUNDAY, INCLUDING LAKE,
VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT
MELBOURNE, VERO BEACH, AND FORT PIERCE
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE
MORNING CLOUDS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PICKING
BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY, COINCIDING WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PROMISES TO (BRIEFLY) BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE LIGHTNING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
MORNING. PRIOR TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVING HERE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, A WINDY AND VERY WARM DAY
IS FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO BEGIN ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, MODELED 925MB
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40 KT, ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO/CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-50%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES FOR
TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAL EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE COAST.
WITH REGARD TO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW, THE LINE OF
ACTIVITY PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A LACK
OF OVERALL INSTABILITY, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND A UNIFORM WIND
PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST SUSTAINING CONVECTION. CAMS INDICATE A
THIN, DECAYING BAND OF SHOWERS (MAYBE AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORM)
APPROACHING THE I-4 CORRIDOR AFTER 1 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SPACE COAST. CONSIDERING THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN WIND
GUSTS OF 40+ MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, BEFORE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S, WHICH WILL PUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED
OR BROKEN. A SWIFT COOLDOWN IS THEN ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST MON. QUITE A RANGE OF MAX TEMPS, FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE MID 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS
VEER EAST TUE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW STORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SE U.S. COAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL
FL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BUT AT LEAST A COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET, EXPANDING TO MUCH OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, PARING BACK TO THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA/BREVARD WATERS THROUGH 4 AM, ONLY TO EXPAND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 15-20 KT NEARSHORE AND 25-30 KT
OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
REACH 4-7 FT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. A DECAYING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON
MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY WITH
FAVORABLE BOATING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER LAND AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AFTER 18Z BRINGING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A STORM NORTH OF I-4).
BREEZY SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, AS GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KTS
CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 15-20KTS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE, WITH GUSTS 25-30KTS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THE ADDITION OF ANY VCSH/VCTS FOR LEE AND
DAB REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF PACKAGE, THOUGH
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PRODUCING VCSH AROUND MCO BY 20Z.
SHOWERS (OR ANY STORMS) COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 83 49 63 / 0 50 10 0
MCO 66 84 53 70 / 0 30 10 0
MLB 66 86 57 69 / 0 20 20 0
VRB 66 86 59 73 / 0 20 20 0
LEE 67 82 50 68 / 0 50 10 0
SFB 66 84 51 67 / 0 40 10 0
ORL 66 84 53 68 / 0 30 10 0
FPR 64 86 58 73 / 0 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ041-044>046-
141-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ550-552-
575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...LEAHY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page