780
FXUS62 KMLB 160225
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
- FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND DAYTONA BEACH ON SUNDAY: BECOMING
WINDY AND WARM THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. GUSTY SHOWERS BETWEEN 3
AND 5 PM (50-60% CHANCE), THEN MUCH COOLER BY EVENING.
- WIND ADVISORY ISSUED 9 AM TO 4 PM SUNDAY FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA,
SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES. PEAK GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40
EXPECTED; SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS LIKE TENTS AND TRASH CANS.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT
MELBOURNE, VERO BEACH, AND FORT PIERCE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA RESIDES BETWEEN A EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH HAS SPAWNED A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. LOCALLY,
MODIFIED CARIBBEAN AIR HAS FUNNELED NORTHWARD, MAKING THIS
FEBRUARY EVENING FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MAY. OTHER THAN A ROGUE
SPRINKLE OR SHOWER (<10%), A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HR. A
POWERFUL MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REACH
THE APPALACHIANS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RESPONSE, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD CENTRAL FL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MASS RESPONSE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE, IN THE FORM OF
AN INCREASING LL JET SEGMENT OF 30-40 KT. AS MIX-OUT OCCURS
MID/LATE MORNING, THE RISK FOR 35 MPH GUSTS INCREASES TO 50-60%
ALONG THE I-4 REGION WHERE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 9 AM. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISTRICT SHOULD SEE
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT MARCHES IN BY 2-5 PM, A 50-60% COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE OVER AREAS LIKE LEESBURG,
SANFORD, AND DAYTONA BEACH. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO 20-30% BY
EVENING FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH A
BIT. OVER THE WIND ADVISORY AREA (NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4), THE COLD
FRONT WILL GIVE A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH IS 20-30%
ACROSS LAKE, VOLUSIA, AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
FROM HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE REMAIN UNIMPRESSED WITH
INSTABILITY PROFILES DUE TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES; THE RISK
FOR LIGHTNING IS 20% OR LESS.
FINALLY, WE EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW/MID 80S AREA-WIDE, WITH MELBOURNE TO
STUART PERHAPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S FOR A SHORT TIME DUE TO
OFFSHORE WINDS. SHARPLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER OUR NORTHERN COMMUNITIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TRIED TO BETTER CAPTURE THE SHARP DROP IN
TEMPS ON THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS EXACT ARRIVAL TIMING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
NOW-TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT SURGED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BROKEN OUT OF THE
MORNING CLOUDS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
MID 80S. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST, BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PICKING
BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY, COINCIDING WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT PROMISES TO (BRIEFLY) BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE LIGHTNING STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TO
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY
MORNING. PRIOR TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVING HERE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, A WINDY AND VERY WARM DAY
IS FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO BEGIN ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, MODELED 925MB
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40 KT, ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO/CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-50%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND ORANGE COUNTIES FOR
TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AREAL EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH ALONG THE COAST.
WITH REGARD TO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW, THE LINE OF
ACTIVITY PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. A LACK
OF OVERALL INSTABILITY, POOR LAPSE RATES, AND A UNIFORM WIND
PROFILE WILL WORK AGAINST SUSTAINING CONVECTION. CAMS INDICATE A
THIN, DECAYING BAND OF SHOWERS (MAYBE AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STORM)
APPROACHING THE I-4 CORRIDOR AFTER 1 PM. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH TOWARD THE ORLANDO METRO AND SPACE COAST. CONSIDERING THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE, SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN WIND
GUSTS OF 40+ MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST, BEFORE ENDING AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S, WHICH WILL PUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED
OR BROKEN. A SWIFT COOLDOWN IS THEN ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 60S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST MON. QUITE A RANGE OF MAX TEMPS, FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE MID 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WINDS
VEER EAST TUE WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW STORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE BULLISH WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SE U.S. COAST WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL
FL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW COLD IT WILL GET. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS ONSHORE BUT AT LEAST A COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON THE WAY LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
(MODIFIED) POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPAND FROM THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO ALL BUT THE TREASURE
COAST NEARSHORE WATERS BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS OF 15-20 KT
NEARSHORE AND 25-30 KT OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT ARE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY AS A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS REACH 4-7 FT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WORKS IN ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DECREASE ON MONDAY WITH
FAVORABLE BOATING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
DAB IMPACTS:
- GUSTY SSW WINDS SUNDAY WITH A 10-12 KT SUSTAINED CROSSWIND ON
RWYS 25R/L BETWEEN 13-16Z.
- A BAND OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES BETWEEN 16/19-21Z.
MCO IMPACT:
- GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING AFTER 20Z.
VFR AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STEADY
SSE BREEZES UP TO 12 KT (A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT COASTAL TERMINALS).
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO VEER AND INCREASE TO 12-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LIGHT
AIRCRAFT MAY FEEL ENHANCED CROSSWIND IMPACTS IF FLYING INTO DAB
FOR SPECIAL EVENT SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN
19-22Z FOR DAYTONA, LEESBURG, SANFORD. BENEATH THE SHOWERS ON THE
FRONT, EXPECT BRIEFLY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES INTO MVFR OR IFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 83 49 63 / 0 60 10 0
MCO 67 84 53 70 / 0 50 10 0
MLB 66 85 57 69 / 0 30 20 0
VRB 66 86 59 73 / 0 20 20 0
LEE 67 82 50 68 / 0 70 10 0
SFB 67 84 51 67 / 0 50 10 0
ORL 67 84 53 68 / 0 50 10 0
FPR 65 86 58 73 / 0 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ041-044>046-
141-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ575.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...HEIL
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