787
FXUS62 KMLB 161759
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1259 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
- WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4 PM TODAY FOR LAKE, VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, ORANGE AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES FOR GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD VALUES TODAY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
- STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN
EARLY THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
HOT AND WINDY TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS ALREADY APPROACHING 30MPH
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 AS OF 10AM. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST, WITH THE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR LAKE, ORANGE,
VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND NORTHERN BREVARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR-RECORD TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAKING IT TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
1PM, THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, A LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM BREVARD
NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO
40MPH MAY BE OBSERVED IN STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 60S THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
STRONGEST 925MB FLOW UP TO 35-40 KNOTS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND THIS IS WHERE HREF GUIDANCE GIVES
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (UP TO 40-60%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH.
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY ISSUED FOR LAKE,
VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES TO ALSO INCLUDE NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ARE FORECAST. FARTHER
SOUTH IT WILL STILL BE WINDY, BUT GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE
LOWER GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-35 MPH, JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THIS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEARING
DAILY RECORDS FOR TODAY. CURRENTLY FORECASTING MELBOURNE, VERO BEACH
AND FORT PIERCE TO AT LEAST TIE THEIR RECORDS, WITH VERO BEACH
LIKELY EXCEEDING THEIRS. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LIMITED HEAT RISK
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING, BUT OVER LAND, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. INTO THE AFTERNOON, A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REACH LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH CLOSER TO 2-3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN IF THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IS LACKING ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH,
ESPECIALLY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST AROUND 60-70 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA, DECREASING TO 20-
30 PERCENT FROM A LINE FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE SOUTHWARD AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FALL APART THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AND PASSING BAND OF
CONVECTION, FALLING TO AS LOW AS THE 60S ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST
LOCATIONS, EXCEPT UPPER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE COOLER AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALL
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER
40S NORTHWEST OF I-4. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY, BUT COULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. EASTWARD
ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS
SYSTEM PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCAPE VALUES REMAIN RATHER LOW,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S/LOW 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY. LOWEST MIN TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE 40S DIP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, LOWS IN THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD,
AND IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON PRECIP COVERAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 434 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY-MONDAY...A DEVELOPING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 5-7 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH NEARSHORE WATERS THEN FALLING OUT OF THE ADVISORY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEING TO VEER AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT, MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TOWARD EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON, WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW
STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.
WINDS BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, AND WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER ROUND OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK, AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES E/NE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND DRAGS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE S/SE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BECOME N/NW INTO THURSDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-8 FEET
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM KSGJ TO KCGC (ST AUGUSTINE TO CRYSTAL RIVER) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LINE IS
FORECAST TO REACH KLEE/KDAB AROUND 19Z, WITH TERMINALS SOUTH WITHIN
A FEW HOURS. ADDED A MENTION OF TSRA TO PREEXISTING TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ALL SITES NORTH OF KISM THRU 23Z, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS. LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE COULD
LAST THROUGH 00Z FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH THE WEAKER LINE
REACHING KVRB BY SUNSET. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY, REACHING 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS
VEER WEST LATER THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHERLY BY DAYBREAK. BRIEF
MVFR REDUCTIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAKENING LINE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 50 62 50 72 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 53 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 10
MLB 57 70 57 74 / 40 0 0 10
VRB 60 73 59 77 / 40 0 0 10
LEE 49 67 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 51 67 51 75 / 10 0 0 10
ORL 53 67 52 75 / 20 0 0 10
FPR 59 72 58 77 / 40 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ041-044>046-
141-144-247-347-447.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550-
552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ575.
UPDATE...LEAHY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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