216
FXUS62 KMLB 162359
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
659 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
- A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD INTO TONIGHT
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS ALONG A COLD
FRONT HAS MADE IT TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 AS OF AROUND
3PM. WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED OVERALL THIS
AFTERNOON, AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DAY
TIME HEATING DIMINISHES, THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL DECREASE
FURTHER AND BE CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. UNTIL THEN, ANY
STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY ENHANCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45MPH. CAMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING
PERHAPS AN HOUR OR SO TOO SLOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THEY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANT SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE TREASURE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POPS 20-40% THIS
EVENING, AS NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS TO
NEARLY 40MPH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4.
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 4PM IN THIS AREA AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE EXTENDING THE ADVISORY, AS WINDS WILL DECREASE ONCE
SHOWERS AND THE FRONT ARRIVE. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ORLANDO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE FRONT, NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THEY ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AT AROUND 10MPH
TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID-80S
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS. BUT, HAVE NO NEW RECORDS TO REPORT
AND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE, AS DAYTONA BEACH HAS FALLEN TO
62 DEGREES AS OF 3PM AMID THE GUSTY SHOWERS. THEIR HIGH TODAY WAS
THE MOST LIKELY TO REACH THEIR RECORD OF 86, BUT FELL SHORT AT 84
DEGREES. THE TREND OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-4.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE COOLER AND DRY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALL
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER
40S NORTHWEST OF I-4. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ONSHORE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY, BUT COULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
EASTWARD ADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS SYSTEM PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. MUCAPE VALUES
REMAIN RATHER LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HIGHS
REACH INTO THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
50S/LOW 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY (PREVIOUS)...COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY. LOWEST MIN TEMPS LOOK
TO OCCUR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS IN THE 40S DIP A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FRIDAY
NIGHT ONWARD, AND IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST
CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT AT
THIS TIME THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
ON PRECIP COVERAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
REST OF TODAY-MONDAY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALONG A COLD FRONT.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS CLEARING THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW
FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS
EXPECTED AT 4PM. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE CAPE
OVERNIGHT, DUE TO WINDS 15-20KTS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
DUE TO WINDS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUILDING SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM TO 5-7FT. NEARSHORE, SEAS 3-6FT. WINDS 15KTS OR
LESS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY (PREVIOUS)...WINDS BECOME ONSHORE INTO TUESDAY
AND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS, WITH SEAS 2-4
FEET. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK, AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES E/NE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SE TO AROUND 15-20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA AS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AS THEY
VEER TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME N/NW INTO
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6-8 FEET OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT
STEADILY MOVES SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS ARE STRETCHED
FROM AROUND TIX TO SRQ (TITUSVILLE TO SARASOTA BRADENTON). MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LINGERING CONVECTION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FROM TIX
SOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 04Z AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT. WINDS BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BY 14/16Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20KT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS BY AROUND 22/23Z ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 50 62 50 72 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 53 69 53 75 / 20 0 0 10
MLB 57 70 57 74 / 30 0 0 10
VRB 60 73 59 77 / 20 0 0 10
LEE 49 67 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 51 67 51 75 / 20 0 0 10
ORL 53 67 52 75 / 20 0 0 10
FPR 59 72 58 77 / 20 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WATSON
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