494
FXUS62 KMLB 171747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.
- COOLER START TO THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT PASSING COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN US. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING, AS YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT CONTINUES INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WILL SEE THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S FOR VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES.
TONIGHT, INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE ARE AND UPPER 40S WELL
NORTH OF I-4.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPS
THIS MORNING STARTING OFF MUCH COOLER, BUT STILL NEAR IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF
I-4 AND INTO THE 50S FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA (EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST). N/NE
WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT COOLER/DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S FROM ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA AND MELBOURNE. FARTHER SOUTH MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER STILL HOLDING ON ACROSS MARTIN
COUNTY. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
TO MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST.
N/NE WINDS DIMINISH PAST SUNSET, WITH LOWS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE/NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND 50S
FARTHER SOUTH, EXCEPT LOW 60S SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. LOW LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND VEER ONSHORE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY, BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS
THIS REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON (POPS ~20%). LOWS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND NW
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND IN THE 60S FARTHER SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, PUSHING
E/NE AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH POPS HIGHEST NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST (UP TO 60-80%). THIS LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING BUT DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EVENTUALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH MUCAPE
VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG OVER LAND, SO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
(ONLY AROUND 20%), BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN
DROP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW
70 ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. COLDEST TEMPS
THIS WEEK WILL BE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST.
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS WINDS
ONLY GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
50S, EXCEPT MID/UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF I-4. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FORECAST DETAILS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
LEAD TO VARYING SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORECAST
LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF EACH DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 50S, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF I-4 INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GFS A LITTLE WETTER
THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE NBM, WITH POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM
CONTINUE TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. NEARSHORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES LINGERING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS FOR
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE
AND WEAKEN, WITH SEAS FALLING TO 2-4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA THAT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN FORECASTING 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS THURSDAY
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
VEER NORTHEAST, AND SEAS STILL UP TO 6-7 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM.
INCREASING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 7-10 KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS SLIGHTLY BACK
NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS. CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. CIGS NEAR MVFR
THRESHOLDS ALONG THE COAST FROM MLB SOUTHWARD EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 50 71 59 76 / 0 0 10 70
MCO 51 74 62 81 / 0 10 10 60
MLB 57 74 64 82 / 0 10 10 50
VRB 59 77 65 84 / 0 10 10 30
LEE 47 73 59 77 / 0 0 10 70
SFB 50 74 60 80 / 0 10 10 70
ORL 51 74 62 80 / 0 10 10 60
FPR 58 76 63 84 / 0 10 10 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572-575.
UPDATE...LEAHY
AVIATION...LAW
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