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FXUS62 KMLB 180552
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1252 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 905 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
- AFTER A COOLER START TO THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT PASSING COLD
FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY LOCALLY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHWARD, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S, WITH
SOME SPOTS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER
60S. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN (PWATS ~1.1") FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. NORTH- NORTHEAST FLOW WILL VEER
INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
REMAINING AROUND 10MPH OR LESS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING NEARER TO NORMAL THAN TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST, PUSHING E/NE AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
POPS HIGHEST NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST (UP
TO 60-70%). THIS LOW WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING, BUT
DIMINISHING, THROUGH THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH MUCAPE VALUES AT OR BELOW
650 J/KG OVER LAND, SO LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW (ONLY AROUND
20%), BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW
70 ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. COLDEST TEMPS
THIS WEEK WILL BE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST/BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST.
HIGHS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS WINDS
ONLY GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
50S, EXCEPT MID/UPPER 40S NORTHWEST OF I-4. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY (PREVIOUS)...FORECAST DETAILS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN INTO THE WEEKEND, AS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN LEAD TO VARYING SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF EACH
DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER
40S NORTHWEST OF I-4 INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GFS A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR
NOW FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE NBM, WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 20-30
PERCENT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS
EVENING OVER THE GULF STREAM, WITH SEAS UP TO 6FT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
NNE WINDS VEERING E THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT 15KTS OR LESS. SEAS
3-5FT BY TOMORROW MORNING BECOMING 3-4FT TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
DRY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY (PREVIOUS)...BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THAT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FORECASTING 15-20 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
WITH WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY VEER NORTHEAST, AND SEAS
STILL UP TO 6-7 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM.
INCREASING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THEN DRIER
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THRU 15Z AND VFR TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY SOUTH). CLOUDS GRADUALLY BUILD FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AND REACH AS FAR NORTH AS MLB, BRIEFLY DROPPING CIGS TO
NEAR MVFR AT TIMES THRU 16Z, BECOMING PRIMARILY SCT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER EAST-NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY ON TUE. MAINLY
10-12 KT OR LESS. CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 58 75 51 / 0 20 70 40
MCO 74 61 81 56 / 10 10 60 40
MLB 74 63 82 57 / 10 20 50 40
VRB 76 63 84 59 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 74 58 76 53 / 0 10 70 30
SFB 74 59 79 54 / 10 10 60 40
ORL 74 61 79 56 / 10 10 60 40
FPR 75 63 84 59 / 20 20 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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