837
FXUS62 KMLB 181120
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
- WARMING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
- A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT PASSING COLD FRONT. THEN
TURNING DRIER INTO LATE WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPANSIVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER ONSHORE INTO TODAY
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. E/NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO
SET IN, WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HOWEVER, COOLER SHELF WATERS NORTH OF THE CAPE
MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE E/SE FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN FOR ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY.
A LOW POTENTIAL (POPS ~20%) FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME INTO
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL
NOT BE AS COOL, WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF
ORLANDO AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL FL LATER INTO
WEDNESDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING A BAND OF RAIN APPROACHING AND
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60-70%) REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM ORLANDO AREA
NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCE POPS 30-50% FARTHER
SOUTH AS BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BREAK UP AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS
PRETTY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOW
(20% OR LESS). SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FROM AROUND ORLANDO AREA SOUTH, WITH MAX
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S TO THE NORTH WHERE GREATEST CLOUD COVER
WILL EXIST. TURNING COOLER AND DRIER THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL THEN
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY THAT
WILL ONLY VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO LATE
WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH COLDER
AIR CONTINUING TO BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST FOR THE
WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE
40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST. NORTH WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES AS LOW AS THE 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY FORECAST TO BE
EVEN COOLER THAN THURSDAY, WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
VOLUSIA COUNTY AND 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEERING ONSHORE ARE THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM-UP,
BUT IT WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT CHILLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND 50S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TOWARD AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY, WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPS
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FL, AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY INTO LATE WEEKEND,
WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A MORE ROBUST S/W TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
AND LEADING TO HIGHER POPS/RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO USE NBM IN THE
EXTENDED WHICH INCREASES RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY TO 20-30 PERCENT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH, DRIER CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS FALL
TO 2-4 FEET. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR TO JUST OFF THE COAST WILL
KEEP WINDS N/NE NORTH OF THE CAPE, AND E/NE TO THE SOUTH. AS
INVERTED TROUGH WEAKENS, WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE E/NE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE
INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES E/NE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS
UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO THURSDAY, WITH
SEAS LINGERING UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY DECREASES SLOWLY AND VEERS ONSHORE INTO SATURDAY,
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE,
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
PASSING LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK, AND MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MAINLY VFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MIXED IN
FROM TIX/MLB SOUTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12
KT AFTER 16Z, FALLING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 23Z. VCSH WAS INCLUDED TO
HIGHLIGHT SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, FIRST AT THE COAST AFTER
21Z-00Z. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST AFTER 18Z WED.,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS INCREASE AND CONTINUALLY
VEER SOUTH, THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF, AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 58 75 51 / 0 20 70 40
MCO 74 61 81 56 / 10 10 60 40
MLB 74 63 82 57 / 10 20 50 40
VRB 76 63 84 59 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 74 58 76 53 / 0 10 70 30
SFB 74 59 79 54 / 10 10 60 40
ORL 74 61 79 56 / 10 10 60 40
FPR 75 63 84 59 / 20 20 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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