329
FXUS62 KMLB 182054
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
- WARMING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT PASSING COLD FRONT. THEN TURNING DRIER INTO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR HAS SHOWN ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND
NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, TOUCHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
WEDNESDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTH PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4 BEFORE SUNRISE, BECOMING NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS (60-
80%) WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO CLERMONT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%) ARE
THEN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW, MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTLINE.
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY VEER THROUGH THE DAY,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. FREQUENT GUSTS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH.
CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER START TO PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-4 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGE THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES INTO FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH, VOLUSIA COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE THE UPPER 50S. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS LAKE AND INTERIOR
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
REACH THE UPPER 30S. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST TO SPAN THE
BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY, WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
RISE IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FL, AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY INTO LATE WEEKEND,
WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A MORE ROBUST S/W TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
AND LEADING TO HIGHER POPS/RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO USE NBM IN THE
EXTENDED WHICH MENTIONS A 20 PERCENT POP INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH, DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
TONIGHT... ISOLATED NORTHEAST MOVING SHOWERS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
EAST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KTS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHERLY, INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS. SEAS OF 2-4 FT CONTINUE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS)...BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
E/NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS A FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15
KNOTS START THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO THURSDAY, WITH
SEAS LINGERING UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY DECREASES SLOWLY AND VEERS ONSHORE INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING TO 3-5
FEET SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
PASSING LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK, AND MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
TAFS BEGIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR KSUA WHERE AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE
OVER ECFL ON WED. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AFTER 00Z AT KTIX, KMLB, KVRB,
KFPR, AND KSUA, IN ADDITION TO AT KMCO, KISM, KSFB, AND KLEE AFTER
03-05Z. TEMPO IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 09-13Z. SCAT'D TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOL'D STORMS ARE FORECAST PRIMARILY INTO THE PM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 75 51 63 / 20 70 40 0
MCO 62 80 56 65 / 10 60 40 0
MLB 65 82 57 68 / 20 50 40 0
VRB 65 85 59 72 / 20 30 30 10
LEE 59 76 52 64 / 10 70 30 0
SFB 60 79 54 65 / 10 70 40 0
ORL 62 80 56 66 / 10 60 40 0
FPR 65 84 59 71 / 20 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...FEHLING
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