912
FXUS62 KMLB 190553
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1253 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
- WARMING UP THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST INTO TONIGHT, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
NEXT PASSING COLD FRONT. THEN TURNING DRIER INTO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS CLOUD COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASES LOCALLY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST,
LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS A RESULT, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF
SUNRISE, RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF.
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTHWARD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR HAS SHOWN ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW BRUSHING THE ADJACENT COASTLINE. AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND
NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, TOUCHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
WEDNESDAY... WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTH PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4 BEFORE SUNRISE, BECOMING NUMEROUS IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS (60-
80%) WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO CLERMONT
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%) ARE
THEN FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW, MAINLY LIMITED TO
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ADJACENT COASTLINE.
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY VEER THROUGH THE DAY,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. FREQUENT GUSTS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH.
CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLIER START TO PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-4 TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGE THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES INTO FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALTHOUGH, VOLUSIA COUNTY MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE THE UPPER 50S. FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS LAKE AND INTERIOR
VOLUSIA COUNTIES WHERE MANY AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY
REACH THE UPPER 30S. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST TO SPAN THE
BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD AND OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY, WITH ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT
RISE IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FL, AND LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY INTO LATE WEEKEND,
WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING A MORE ROBUST S/W TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
AND LEADING TO HIGHER POPS/RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH THE ECMWF
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED TO USE NBM IN THE
EXTENDED WHICH MENTIONS A 20 PERCENT POP INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH, DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
TONIGHT... ISOLATED NORTHEAST MOVING SHOWERS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
EAST WINDS AROUND 7-12 KTS GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHERLY, INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS. SEAS OF 2-4 FT CONTINUE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY (PREVIOUS)...BOATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE INTO MID TO LATE WEEK, AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
E/NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND DRAGS A FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15
KNOTS START THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME N/NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS. THIS WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO THURSDAY, WITH
SEAS LINGERING UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY DECREASES SLOWLY AND VEERS ONSHORE INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE, DECREASING TO 3-5
FEET SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
PASSING LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK, AND MAY SEE A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO
EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH VFR/MVFR FORECAST THRU 12-15Z AND
LOCALLY VCSH ALONG THE COAST, THEN BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR CIGS
SOUTH TO NORTH FOR MOST SITES, UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRINGS VCTS/SHRA SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z-20Z. ENE WINDS VEERING
SSW BY 15Z, GENERALLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT (17-23Z). TEMPOS
WERE INCLUDED FROM MLB NORTHWARD 19Z-01Z. AS SHRA GRADUALLY ENDS
AFTER 03Z, CIGS FALL TO MVFR/IFR FROM ISM/MCO/TIX NORTHWARD BY THE
END OF THE TAF, WITH WINDS VEERING WNW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 50 63 39 / 80 50 0 0
MCO 81 56 67 42 / 70 50 0 0
MLB 82 57 68 46 / 50 40 0 0
VRB 85 59 71 49 / 30 30 0 0
LEE 75 52 64 38 / 80 50 0 0
SFB 78 54 66 41 / 70 50 0 0
ORL 80 55 66 42 / 70 50 0 0
FPR 85 59 71 49 / 20 30 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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