555
FXUS62 KMLB 190921
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 10-20%), AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW TO
MID 80S NEAR TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL
VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE (RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%) IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY, AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN
(REMNANTS OF AN MCS), WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE,
REACHING LAKE COUNTY AND THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, WITH MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST AROUND 250 J/KG
OR LESS, SO ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED (AROUND
10-20%). GREATEST RAIN CHANCES, UP TO 60-80%, CONTINUE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE, WITH POPS 30-50% NEAR TO
SOUTH OF THIS LINE, EXCEPT 20% ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FROM AROUND THE ORLANDO AREA
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE 70S FARTHER
NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH
THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, EXCEPT LOW 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 60S FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD AND LOWS 70S ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEK THEN FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4,
EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND OF MARTIN COUNTY. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE WIND
CHILLS FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S BRIEFLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL EVEN BE COOLER THAN THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES, AND DAYTONA BEACH WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD
COOL HIGH FOR THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
AND VOLUSIA COAST, AND 50S FOR BREVARD COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WILL LEADS TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AND 70S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. MIN TEMPS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA EACH NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO
SUNDAY, UP TO 30 PERCENT, WITH PASSING S/W TROUGH ALOFT. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL QPF FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECWMF INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS A TAD WETTER.
DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH, WITH TEMPS STILL A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL (HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S) ON MONDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND SETTING IN TO TUESDAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TODAY, WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY FOR S/SW WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE IN N/NW
WINDS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW, UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH, WINDS BECOME W/NW UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTY WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THEY VEER ONSHORE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING TO 4-6 FEET IN THE MORNING AND 3-5
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME N/NW INTO SUNDAY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH VFR/MVFR FORECAST THRU 12-15Z AND
LOCALLY VCSH ALONG THE COAST, THEN BRIEFLY RETURNING TO VFR CIGS
SOUTH TO NORTH FOR MOST SITES, UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BRINGS VCTS/SHRA SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z-20Z. ENE WINDS VEERING
SSW BY 15Z, GENERALLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT (17-23Z). TEMPOS
WERE INCLUDED FROM MLB NORTHWARD 19Z-01Z. AS SHRA GRADUALLY ENDS
AFTER 03Z, CIGS FALL TO MVFR/IFR FROM ISM/MCO/TIX NORTHWARD BY THE
END OF THE TAF, WITH WINDS VEERING WNW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 50 63 39 / 80 50 0 0
MCO 81 56 67 42 / 60 50 0 0
MLB 82 57 68 46 / 50 40 0 0
VRB 85 59 71 49 / 30 30 0 0
LEE 75 52 64 38 / 80 50 0 0
SFB 78 54 66 41 / 70 50 0 0
ORL 80 55 66 42 / 70 50 0 0
FPR 85 59 71 49 / 20 30 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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