276
FNUS72 KMLB 191024
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR JOSHUA CREEK 01...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
524 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON FEBRUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY, AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE BURN SITE, MAINLY INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A LOW CHANCE,
AROUND 20 PERCENT, WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS
MORNING BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY,
WITH A HIGH AROUND 80 DEGREES. NO MIN RH CONCERNS TODAY, WITH
VERY GOOD DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 3200 FT AGL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....21 INCREASING TO 55 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 80 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
DECREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............5 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........78 74 72 71 70 73 77 80 84
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 40 50 60
TEMP............70 73 76 78 80 80 80 77 74
RH..............93 87 76 69 62 60 60 67 71
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SW SW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 12 13 13 13 12 10 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 13 16 17 17 17 17 15 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.2 3.2 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW SW W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 16 20 20 21 22 20 18 16
DISPERSION IDX..21 37 53 56 75 82 77 44 30
LVORI...........5 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING,
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 9 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10
TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE WEST 9 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12 TO 13 MPH OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....9.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........87 90 88 86 87 90
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 40 30 30 20 10
TEMP............72 67 66 64 61 59
RH..............79 93 93 97 97 90
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 7 W 7 W 8 NW 9 NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (FT)....600 500 700 500 800 1300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 SW 10 W 10 NW 10 N 12 N 12
DISPERSION IDX..11 8 7 9 11 11
LVORI...........4 6 6 6 6 5
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16 INCREASING TO 45.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........89 88 86 84 82 71 61 50 40 30 20 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............56 56 55 56 60 61 62 63 63 63 63 60
RH..............93 90 93 90 78 71 66 60 57 54 52 55
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N NW NW NW NW NW NW N
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.1 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
DISPERSION IDX..12 18 20 23 24 28 32 46 48 48 48 41
LVORI...........6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...WEITLICH
REQUESTED BY...BLAKE BOYLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2503177.0/MLB
.DELDT 02/19/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BLAKE.BOYLE@FDACS.GOV
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