163
FXUS62 KMLB 191810
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
110 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS (AROUND 10-20%), AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGHS AS WARM AS THE LOW TO
MID 80S NEAR TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THEN FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL
VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE
AND NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SO FAR THIS MORNING. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH, A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST NORTH OF I-4.
RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. POPS
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST, AND THE GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO
MELBOURNE (60-80%) THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORM, THOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW. BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW AREAS SOUTH OF ORLANDO TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE OVERCAST
SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE (RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%) IN THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY, AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF RAIN
(REMNANTS OF AN MCS), WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE,
REACHING LAKE COUNTY AND THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, WITH MUCAPE VALUES FORECAST AROUND 250 J/KG
OR LESS, SO ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED (AROUND
10-20%). GREATEST RAIN CHANCES, UP TO 60-80%, CONTINUE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE, WITH POPS 30-50% NEAR TO
SOUTH OF THIS LINE, EXCEPT 20% ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH AND SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FROM AROUND THE ORLANDO AREA
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, MAX TEMPS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE 70S FARTHER
NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH
THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, EXCEPT LOW 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 60S FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD AND LOWS 70S ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEK THEN FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4,
EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN COASTAL MAINLAND OF MARTIN COUNTY. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAY EVEN SEE WIND
CHILLS FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S BRIEFLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL EVEN BE COOLER THAN THURSDAY. MAX TEMPS
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES, AND DAYTONA BEACH WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORD
COOL HIGH FOR THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
AND VOLUSIA COAST, AND 50S FOR BREVARD COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WILL LEADS TO ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AND 70S FARTHER SOUTH AND INLAND. MIN TEMPS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA EACH NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO
SUNDAY, UP TO 30 PERCENT, WITH PASSING S/W TROUGH ALOFT. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL QPF FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECWMF INTO
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS A TAD WETTER.
DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH, WITH TEMPS STILL A TAD COOLER THAN NORMAL (HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S) ON MONDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND SETTING IN TO TUESDAY AS MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MIN TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TODAY, WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT LEADING TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY FOR S/SW WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE IN N/NW
WINDS IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW, UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. AS FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH, WINDS BECOME W/NW UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTY WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THEN
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THEY VEER ONSHORE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING TO 4-6 FEET IN THE MORNING AND 3-5
FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME N/NW INTO SUNDAY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF MCO
THIS AFTN. AREA OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN TERMINALS BTWN 20Z-24Z, INCLUDING MCO WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU
WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW, BECOMING N ON THU. BIGGEST IMPACT
WILL BE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH 14Z OR SO THU BECOMING VFR BY 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 63 41 58 / 60 0 0 0
MCO 56 67 42 62 / 60 0 0 0
MLB 57 68 47 65 / 50 0 0 0
VRB 60 72 50 68 / 30 0 0 0
LEE 52 64 38 60 / 60 0 0 0
SFB 54 66 41 60 / 60 0 0 0
ORL 55 66 42 61 / 60 0 0 0
FPR 60 72 49 68 / 30 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ575.
UPDATE...LAW
AVIATION...KELLY
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