087
FXUS62 KMLB 200225
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
- A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK FORECAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND IN THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWEST WIND CHILL
VALUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A WEAK LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT, WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE. THE LIGHTNING THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, SO HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF TWEAKING THE POPS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. SKIES REMAINING CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 MPH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTHWARD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT... CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO BUILD NORTH
AND WEST OF I-4 AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. BEST
COVERAGE REMAINS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO MELBOURNE
(60-80%) THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE GRADUALLY DWINDLING AS THE
LINE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH (20-40%). A LOW CONFIDENCE MENTION OF
LIGHTNING REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
LIMITED TO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS UP TO THIS POINT. BEHIND
THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
REDEVELOP OR LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST MOSTLY IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY VEER
NORTHEAST FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS RANGE THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS THEN FALL 4-6
DEGREES INTO FRIDAY, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, REACHING THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-4. LOW 40S ARE FORECAST
ALONG I-4, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OSCEOLA AND PORTIONS OF
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. BREVARD AND AREAS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WILL
MOSTLY SEE LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ONSHORE FLOW
AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HIGHS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST AND 70S FARTHER
SOUTH AND INLAND. MIN TEMPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
AREA EACH NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, BUT RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY (20-40%), WITH A SERIES OF
PASSING S/W TROUGHS ALOFT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND OVERALL
QPF CONTINUE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECWMF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
LEADING TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA AND ALL
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR S/SW WINDS UP TO 15-20
KNOTS. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH, WINDS BECOME W/NW UP TO 15-20
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTY WATERS WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE CLOSER TO AROUND 20-22
KNOTS, WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS) ...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A FRESH NORTHERLY
BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-8 FEET OVER
THE GULF STREAM WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPANDS TO INCLUDE
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS TO THE
NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AS THEY VEER ONSHORE INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING TO 4-6 FEET IN THE MORNING AND 3-5 FEET
IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME N/NW INTO SUNDAY AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING, WITH VCSH ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AND EVEN
IFR TONIGHT, WITH TEMPOS IN FOR FL007 CIGS FROM 14-16Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. NW WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 51 63 41 58 / 30 0 0 0
MCO 56 67 42 62 / 30 0 0 0
MLB 58 68 47 65 / 50 0 0 0
VRB 60 72 50 68 / 30 0 0 0
LEE 52 64 38 60 / 30 0 0 0
SFB 53 66 41 60 / 20 0 0 0
ORL 55 66 42 61 / 30 0 0 0
FPR 60 72 49 68 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ575.
UPDATE...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page