516
FXUS62 KMLB 201121
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
621 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (NORTHWEST OF I-4) AND IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH, CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE NORTH
END OF THE TREASURE COAST. AT 3 AM, TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S NORTH, IN PLACES LIKE DAYTONA BEACH AND LEESBURG, TO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
STICK WITH US THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL REMAIN
BREEZY TODAY, AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. AT THE BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EXISTS, ALONG WITH A STRONG, SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT.
ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD!
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND TONIGHT,
KEEPING NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS ELEVATED (SIMILAR TO DURING THE
DAY). BREEZY CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
30S ACROSS A SIZABLE PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA
COUNTIES, WHERE SOME SPOTS COULD REACH THE UPPER 20S. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THESE LOCATIONS IF
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-30 DEGREE WIND CHILLS INCREASES. RIGHT NOW, 00Z
HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BELOW 30-DEGREE APPARENT TEMPERATURES HAVE
A 40-60% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES
AROUND 70% NORTH AND WEST OF LEESBURG. PREDOMINANTLY DRIER AIR
WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, THOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 900-925MB COULD SUPPORT INCREASING MARINE
STRATOCUMULUS. THESE CLOUDS OVER THE ATLANTIC MAY BRUSH THE COAST
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AFTER A FRIGID START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SURFACE
FLOW TO VEER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MEANS A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDS PUSHING ASHORE. THE 850MB MARINE CLOUD LAYER,
MODELED BY SHORTER-RANGE GUIDANCE, LOOKS TO SUPPORT A LIGHT
COASTAL SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SOME 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE FL PENINSULA. A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPICTED IN ALL THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS,
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH
OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK AND UNORGANIZED MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSES
FL AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE PENINSULA. IN FACT, A WEAK
TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TAKE SHAPE INTO LATE SATURDAY AND
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, KEPT RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 15-20 PERCENT, FOCUSED ON THE COAST AND AREAS SURROUNDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW AND CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, PUSHING TOWARD
THE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A FEW LESS
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STEADY RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST, NOTABLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN STAYS MODESTLY ACTIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF OR ACCOMPANYING FAST-MOVING TROUGHS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY, WILL BE TIED TO THE FORMATION OF AND LOCATION OF A
POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, WHICH
SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT MEANS RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT ON THE LOW END OF THE
RANGE (15-30%). THE GEFS AND EPS MEAN QPF MONDAY-TUESDAY IS
GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 0.10" AT KMCO, WITH THE EPS SUGGESTING SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (AROUND 0.25").
THIS FALLS IN LINE WELL WITH WPC QPF, ALSO. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
NEXT SEVEN LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. OVERALL, WE CAN EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY
TIME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES MIXED IN.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD
BRING ANOTHER LOW RAIN CHANCE AND BRIEF COOLDOWN TO ROUND OUT THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN PLACE FOR THE 0-60NM WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS
MORNING AND WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING TREASURE COAST
WATERS (OUT TO 60NM) AT 10 AM. UNTIL THEN, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THERE. UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM, BEFORE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA
THROUGH THE DAY. NWRLY WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE PGRAD REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT INTO
TONIGHT, WITH ELEVATED NNW/N WINDS CONTINUING. IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
MUCH OF ECFL THRU AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING AND/OR EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 40 57 47 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 66 41 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 67 45 64 53 / 0 10 10 10
VRB 71 48 67 55 / 0 10 20 20
LEE 64 37 59 44 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 65 40 60 48 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 65 41 61 48 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 71 47 67 53 / 0 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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