329
FXUS62 KMLB 202058
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS EC FL FORECAST TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FAR NW AND LOWEST WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND 30
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY, GRADUALLY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, IMPROVING
THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
TONIGHT...COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL FL
AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1045MB) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A N/NW BREEZE ALL NIGHT OF 8-14
MPH, AND GUSTY AT TIMES. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OVER
THE FAR NW PORTION OF OUR FA (NW VOLUSIA/N LAKE) WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. THIS WILL PRODUCE COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30 ACROSS FAR NW LAKE COUNTY WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S ACROSS VOLUSIA AND THE INTERIOR DOWN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OUR CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW 30. ONLY THE FAR NW CORNER OF LAKE COUNTY (LADY
LAKE) REACHED THIS CRITERIA AND ONLY BRIEFLY, AROUND SUNRISE.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DIFFERENT CRITERIA.
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BRING SOME
MARINE STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP COASTAL TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER, HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST AND LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH WINDS VEERING
SLIGHTLY, OUT OF THE N/NE WITH CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU PUSHING
ONSHORE. SOME OF THIS STRATOCU WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE CAPE. MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S
IN VOLUSIA COUNTY AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD COOL
MAX AT DAYTONA (57 IN 2020). ELSEWHERE, MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
60S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S, SOME
5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
WEEKEND (MODIFIED)...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT ON SATURDAY
WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEPICTED IN ALL
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS, MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK AND UNORGANIZED
MID LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSES FL AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
PENINSULA. IN FACT, A WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TAKE
SHAPE INTO LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FOR
NOW, KEPT SAT DRY WITH RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND CENTERED OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT COASTAL
VOLUSIA HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED)...SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO
MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST, BEGINNING ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STEADY RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST,
NOTABLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PATTERN STAYS MODESTLY ACTIVE
WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF OR ACCOMPANYING FAST-MOVING
TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, WILL BE TIED TO THE FORMATION OF
AND LOCATION OF A POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AND THESE CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40
PERCENT. THE FRONT SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOK
DRY. THE WARMEST DAY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. OVERALL, WE
CAN EXPECT A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY TIME WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER CHANCES MIXED IN.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
RAIN CHANCE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOLDOWN TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
DUE TO N/NE WINDS 16-22 KNOTS BUILD SEAS UP TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM, 5-7 FEET NEARSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 15 KNOTS/6 FEET. A WEAK FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD IN TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IS
ALLOWING LOW STRATO-CU TO LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SLOW
THINNING IS OCCURRING, AND CIGS ARE LIFTING INTO MVFR AT MOST
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER/LIFT
THROUGH MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDS MORE LIKELY (60%) THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
REDEVELOPS AND MAY BEGIN CLIPPING OUR COASTAL TERMINALS. OVERALL,
CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR THIS
TAF PKG. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT LESSEN
SOME TONIGHT AND TURN NE ON FRIDAY, GUSTING 15-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 40 58 48 67 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 43 62 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 47 65 54 70 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 50 68 56 72 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 38 60 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 41 60 48 69 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 43 61 49 69 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 50 68 55 72 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HEIL
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